What was the short term economic effect of the Black Plague?

by Tiako

Define "immediate" as you like, although I am primarily concerned with the first few decades. My main interest is in things like size and complexity of trade networks, vigor of the urban economy and overall economic productivity rather than the well known theory of increased average quality of life due to demographic easing.

I'm asking this because there is a fairly widely stated hypothesis that the Antonine Plague of 160 CE is to blame for the reduction of economic activity in the Roman Empire through the second century, particularly in terms of long distance trade, and I am curious about a comparative approach.

idjet

There's a doctoral thesis in waiting as a tripartite comparative approach of the Antonine 2nd c, Justinian 6th c and Black Death 14th c plagues. We know more about the Byzantine side than the western European experience of the 6th c plague, but the 14th century plague is exceptionally well documented and hence blamed for massive transformation of the European economy. Some of it is metaphysical speculation in my opinion.

The comparative approach would yield interesting results; notwithstanding whatever particularities there are with the 2nd c plague, we hit an issue with analyzing the effects of the Black Death: the demolition of the European population by orders of 40-60% seemed to persist for nearly 80 years. This is far longer than economic historians expect which has led to some of the psycho-metaphysic analysis I mentioned. It's become an issue of disentangling the plague from other possible factors not least of which includes the 100 Years War that started at just about the same time.

There are clear records of reduced economic activity, inflationary pressures, port centers becoming scenes of desolation, surpluses of land and capital, instant wealth for certain merchants. But in my readings it is anecdotal, local investigations of effect.

HeloisePommefume

In the short-term trade networks were decimated: not just because they were hard to run because so many suppliers, potential customers, and dealers were dead, but because many Italian city-states set up quarantines refusing to allow goods in or out or their ports. Even local economies were shut down as fairs and markets were forbidden by royal proclamations. Of more interest to me is the economic effect on feudal society: the death of so many serfs made it hard for land owners to find anyone willing to work their land, and surviving serfs suddenly had newfound power to demand wages and better working conditions.

[deleted]

I am not knowledgeable enough about the entirety the Black Plague to comment extensively about this topic, but one of the economic changes the Plague had on England was greater bargaining power for serfs when dealing with land lord because of the enormous labor shortage the plague caused. Serfs were able to end their serfdom and demand wages for their labor ("Early Modern England: 1485-1714", Bucholz & Key, pg. 20).