Is there a consensus about what, exactly, happened in the diplomatic run-up to Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in 1990?
My recollection of anecdotal evidence at the time is that Saddam Hussein's government sent ambiguous communications to April Glaspie (the U.S. ambassador to Iraq), and received an ambiguous reply: it seems that the Iraqis thought they were obliquely asking "If we were to invade and annex Kuwait, would the United States have a problem with that?" and that they received a reply that the Iraqis interpreted as "No, we would tolerate that", but I seem to recall Ambassador Glaspie taking the position that the exchange didn't go that way at all.
If there was miscommunication, which side was more at fault: the Iraqis for not being more direct, or the Americans for negligently misinterpreting the signals?
[this is a re-post of a question that I asked four months ago but which didn't get any answers] [edit: spelling]
Correct me if I'm wrong, but wouldn't most of the information that would give concrete answers still be "classified" for another 30 years or so?
I know little about the specific exchange you mention, but I can illustrate a lesser-known factor in the escalation towards war, namely Bandar bin Sultan.
A member of the House of Saud, and grandson of Abdulaziz himself, Bandar served as the long-time Saudi ambassador to the US. He's the one sometimes called 'Bandar Bush' due to his closeness to the Bush family.
Following the annexation of Kuwait, Bandar translated then-president G.W. Bush's letters to Hussein into Arabic. He deliberately chose Arabic idioms that were particularly antagonistic and phrasing designed to wound male pride. Bandar, operating under Saudi orders, took advantage of the social and political need to save face that is common in Middle Eastern society to push Hussein toward defiance of American attempts to avoid war. The Saudi motivation was simple--with Kuwait annexed, the richest of the Saudi oil fields were now exposed to Iraqi aggression, and the House of Saud worried that it was next. They hoped Hussein would be removed from power in the ensuing conflict.
Details can be found in Simpson's biography of bin Sultan, The Prince, and in Lacey's The Kingdom