That is a lot of speculation. The "what if they won" one is simply too far gone to answer in a truly academic fashion. My guess is that they would have eventually been absorbed into the German Empire. Austria Hungary was far behind many other nations at the start of the war. I mean, they were losing to the Russian Empire... I think a nation that was so far behind would have had a great deal of trouble becoming a significant power, especially being right next door to a thriving Germany.