At what point did it become public knowledge that the Soviet Union was going to dissolve?

by durutticolumn

I was a baby when the Soviet Union broke up, so the version of history I got in school was very hazy and unclear since it was too recent. I know you guys get a lot of questions about what caused the downfall of the USSR, but that's not quite what I'm asking.

When did the world realize the Soviet Union was done? The Berlin Wall fell in 1989, but Gorbachev didn't formally disband the USSR until 1991. I always hear that few if any experts predicted the downfall, but presumably they knew what was coming by the time Gorbachev made his announcement. Was there a date or an event that caused public/expert opinion to shift?

I realize there isn't an easy answer to this question, but I hope it's something people have researched. A potential answer to my question would be quotations from world leaders (for instance, when did George HW Bush first publicly declare victory in the Cold War)?

D121

It's difficult to really say "When did the world realize the Soviet Union was done." Simply because its dependent on who you considered a legitimate source and who truly believed them.

To be clear though, when you say "Gorbachev didn't formally disband the USSR until 1991." While he may have done so, it's not as if he truly had a choice. There was a power struggle going on between Yeltsin and Gorbachev, it seems that at the point when Yeltsin became the leader of the now independent Russian Federation that it was over for the Soviet Union. However, around this point conservative communist members attempted to stage a last stand defense, and remove several of the freedoms by Gorbachev and reclaim a much more strict Soviet Union. Gorbachev ultimately declined to do so, and Yeltsin became a public hero over the event. But again this was at the very end (1991.)

If we're talking about in analysis terms. It's even more difficult because so much of the Soviet Unions documents were classified. However, a few things were clear.

  1. The threat of the Soviet Union was reduced, after seeing their war efforts in Afghanistan - which was riddled with old technology and poor planning.
  2. Gorbachev essentially ending the arms race, because the Soviet Union no longer had the cash for it.

That's the best I can say. Otherwise I would say it would come as a surprise, because all the way up to the final years - Gorbachev attempted to keep control and put down any statements that contradicted the idea of the Soviet Union Crumbling.

(Will add sources later.)