Tokugawa society before the opening to the West was a well-developed society. Like Europe before the Industrial age, the groundwork was laid in Japan for rapid industrialisation--the potential just had to be tapped into. An example is the fisheries in Hokkaido. Firstly, the region was much more rural and the climate more harsh than much of the other regions in Japan. Secondly, the fisheries were not affected as much as other industries once Japan opened in 1854. Thirdly, the fish industry in Hokkaido was an intricate balance between local, family business work and the operations carried out by the Matsumae domain that controlled the area. Consequently, the business grew and as demand increased, the industry developed a pre-capitalist system that brought in tons of income during the 19th century. Michael Smitka has an in-depth book on this and the proto-industrial society of the Tokugawa.

There's no straight answer to the question, as it is very complex. But I hope this gives some insight and leads you in the right direction. Best of luck!