I read this on a history board. Apparantly, the fear that Russia was going to overtake Germany soon was one of the factors that led to Germany wanting war in 1914 and not later. Is there any truth to this? Did the military staff actually think this or was the information I read wrong? Why would a Russian military from 1916 onwards be better than the German military? What kind of reforms were they going through?
Yes, this is somewhat true, though I have never heard this 1916 date.
Imperial Russian army reforms did contribute to desire, on the part of the Germans, for a war sooner rather than later. After the Russo-Japanese war, the Russian military began a reform campaign set to be finished around 1922. These reforms would have expanded Russia’s strategic railways and allowed for much faster mobilization and maneuver. In the eyes of German’s Von Moltke, this greatly increased the Russian threat and would have interfered with the German war plans, which were predicated on a slow Russian mobilization. At least in his mind, this made going to war sooner, rather than later, much preferable.
Were these fears justified? Somewhat. It can be argued that the Russian reform process showed the German army that their war plans were beginning to show a noticeable patina, and that their position in a war against France and Russia was becoming increasingly untenable. Doubtless, this contributed to the decision to press the Serbian issue to a point of war in 1914 – though, there were many factors that contributed to the German decision making process.
Its less a matter of Russia gaining military ascendency over Germany than the fact that post-Bismark, German diplomacy had directly lead to a situation in which France and Russia were allied – with the ominous risk of a land war on two fronts.
More or less simultaneously, Britain had entered an entente with France and Russia, her two great colonial rivals, enabling her to concentrate her navy in home waters and effectively scuttling Tirpitz’s plan to achieve local naval supremacy over the Royal Navy in home waters.
Germany was now surrounded by a triple entente of powers that were at best unsympathetic to her interests and threatening to eclipse Germany militarily both on land and at sea. Hence a possible desire for war sooner rather than later.
Source – Forgotten Victory, Gary Sheffield.