Popular fiction often depicts people remarking that "the war will be over soon" in 1864-1865, how widespread was this sentiment? Did the average Confederate soldier believe they still had a chance at victory? How aware of the overall situation (economically, strategically, militarily) would they have been? Additionally if there are any books you'd recommend about the later years of the war, I'd love to know. Thanks!
I enjoyed Turning Points of the Civil War from James A. Rawley
One thing that was important for the Confederates was that Anti-War sentiment was existent and there actually was alot of sympathy for the Confederate cause in many northern Citys. While most of the Population stayed loyal things such as the New York City draft riots showed that harsh measurements could ignite uprisings or atleast controversy and discussion if a Peace was not favourable to a prologned and harsh war. So an armistice and peace treaty was a possibility for the South and with the elections in 1864 any successfull battle/defense or resistance could be the pendulum that could have swung the vote towards a candidate that would be less radical than Lincoln. The southern Soldiers and Generals , although the situation was dire, knew that good performance and resistance could still influence the election and make peace a possibility.
There is something important parallel between the American Revolution and the American Civil War.
The newly formed United States, and the newly formed Confederate States, did not have to win. They only had to not loose.
In the ARW, the US did not defeat Britain. We just didn't loose, and Britain decided it wasn't worth the hassle gave up. (Yea, we had to re-fight in the War of 1812, but that's another story.)
Likewise, in the ACW, there was a small but growing voice who believed the war was not worth the cost and there was a growing demand to simply end it.
That's all the South would have needed, not "victory."
Gary Gallagher's The Confederate War makes the case for the widespread existence of Southern nationalism even late into the war which helped prolong the fighting. In some respects this nationalism was steeped in support for Lee and the Army of Northern Virginia (hence the collapse of that nationalism after Appomattox), but it was also based in general support for the Confederate nation (not just individual home states), shared hatred of the North, support for the slave system and Southern interpretations of liberty, government, and independence.
These factors helped retain a Confederate commitment to fighting, and it's also important to remember that the war was far from over in 1864. Gettysburg and Vicksburg, for example, were watershed moments that often mark the beginning of the end for the Confederacy, but that process was still slow and uncertain for years.