Could someone tell me how North Korea came to be considered any type of threat after the Korean War? I giggle at their rhetoric, as I think I'm programmed to, but do they carry any heft as a country to be reckoned with? Have they been dastardly busy since the '50s?
Well for one thing, many people today take for granted that South Korea is a fully industrialized and prosperous democracy.
Directly prior to the Korean War, South Korea was undoubtedly the underdog of the peninsula. Much of the industrialization that did occur in Korea was focused in the North while the South was more of Korea's breadbasket. Many of the natural resources that could be easily exploited to boost production and development were also located north of the border.
And militarily, South Korea was certainly the underdog. While South Korea was supplied and received limited training by American forces, the North Koreans were similarly supplied and trained by the Soviets.
Tens of thousands of North Koreans had volunteered in various Communist Chinese PLA units and they were battle hardened from their time in Chinese campaigns. The Chinese allowed these men to return to North Korea with their weapons and equipment, forming a core that the North Koreans could build an offensive around.
After the war, North Korea still maintained much of this advantage over South Korea, at least without US support in the equation. Back then, the differences in equipment and training were not like they are today. Both sides had massive pools of manpower to draw from, both had the backings of major super powers in the region, and had both military and developmental aid pouring in because of Cold War politics.
As for how this has transitioned into more contemporary times, it has to do with South Korea's economic rise and North Korea's social and economic inflexibility ruining its infrastructure.
But more to the point, North Korea presents 4 distinct possible threats in the region.
The most direct is the danger to Seoul, South Korea's capital. It's incredibly close to the border, just over 55 km, and North Korea takes advantage of this by strategically placing thousands of pieces of artillery, rocket launchers and missile systems all aimed at Seoul. With a population of well over 10 million in the city's central areas, it would be absolute devastation if NK artillery were allowed to fire for even minutes.
The impact would be tragic due to loss of life but the economic devastation is no joke. Seoul is just like any other major metropolis and its skyscrapers and apartment complexes were not designed to withstand artillery shelling or missiles. The property damage alone would be massive. Investment would immediately drop because instability drives investment away due to risk, meaning the economic impact alone is enough for players in the region to worry.
The other major danger is, of course, North Korea's nuclear capabilities. North Korea has conducted nuclear tests and has shown that they have both access to fissile material as well as the technological knowhow to put two and two together to at the very least make a rudimentary nuclear device. This is of course, worrying when in the hands of a nation where the official government line is the total annihilation of many of its neighbours.
The other problem is of course, if anybody were to destabilize NK, there's no saying if the nuclear material/nuclear devices would stay secure. It could fall into the hands of a rogue hardline military faction willing to detonate it across North Korea in a misguided scorched earth operation. Or it could find its way into the hands of militants who are willing to plant it in South Korea, or even Japan. Or any number of nonstate actors could suddenly acquire it. This is one of the major worries of a uncontrolled collapse of the NK regime.
Then there is the issue of North Korea's ballistic missiles. They have had an intensive development program for years to properly develop reliable delivery systems for various warheads, the most applicable being a nuclear device as a deterrent.
The risks are similar to the scenarios I outlines above about nuclear devices falling into the wrong hands but less so because ballistic missiles are a little harder to hide and sneak around unnoticed.
It's more of a worry that an aggressive NK might start shooting them at South Korea or Japan, or more specifically American forces and holdings in the region. In such a scenario, it probably wouldn't be a nuclear missile barrage but even a regular warhead would not be fun for those on the receiving end.
All this being said, the NK missile program is notorious for having limited success and by this point, the US, SK, and Japan are pretty prepared for such a situation.
The final threat is of course, a general invasion plan by North Korea that mobilizes a majority of their military forces and pushes into South Korea. While by just about every angle, it's almost certain the US and South Korea would win any conventional war against North Korea forces, such a war would be devastatingly tragic and wreck the region politically and financially.
North Korea still has a nominal military of well over a million personnel with plenty of small arms, tanks, AFVs, artillery, combat planes, etc. albeit much of it about 30 to 40 years too old. But a tank is a tank. The NK air force is also severely lacking in spare parts as well as fuel, meaning much of it will be grounded most of the time. Fuel is probably the biggest reason any theoretical North Korean invasion would grind to a halt long before US and South Korean forces can counter attack.
But that being said, North Korean forces could still pour across the DMZ and at the very least, Seoul and Hwacheon would be devastated. Casualties would be immense and the need for heavy US involvement in the region is just inviting political problems for decades on.
And North Korea has various special forces units to worry about as well. These units could probably slip into South Korea and wreck havoc in various insurgent attacks. One such special forces unit slipped into South Korea a very long time ago in 1968 and attempted to assassinate the then President, erupting into a massive firefight in the streets.
It's not a fun scenario to think about.
If you have anymore questions feel free to ask!