Well, there's not just one, there's many — and they're all equally valid. Human relations are chaotic. Change one item in an ancestor-descendant chain (and I'm talking of nations too, not just people), and you alter those descendants in unpredictable ways.

The map I just drew on a paper towel would be just as valid as something with research behind it. History isn't a testable science, unfortunately. We can suggest hypotheses all we want, but we can't test them unless someone invents time travel or dimensional travel.

I can't deliver the actual item you seek but here's a non sourced idea. At the height of the British Empire they maintained 32 very large naval bases. Currently the US maintains 33... mostly the same places but a different century.