The issue with the Treaty of Versailles was that it was the worst of both worlds. Punitive enough to incur German resentment, not punitive enough to prevent them from acting on that resentment. The territories that Germany lost were mostly non-German, and their colonies were useless burdens that were then shifted onto the damaged economies of the Allies. The reparations issue was largely settled by 1924, and between 1924-29 Germany enjoyed immense economic prosperity. It was the Great Depression that gave Hitler his window to power.

A world war between the US and the USSR was avoided largely thanks to prudent diplomacy and MAD. A third world war with Germany was avoided because the victory of 1945 was so total. The German army and economy were destroyed, most cities were in ruins, and the country was divided for c. 45 years to be sure that it could not rise to start yet another one.

In the end, it was the circumstances that FOLLOWED both wars, and the circumstances of their ends, that decided the peace. Under the Dawes Plan of 1924, Germany was given access to capital in the form of foreign loans to pay reparations and stabilize their economy. Between 1924 and 1929, the Germans received more money in foreign loans than West Germany received in Marshall Plan funds after WWII, adjusting for 1948 US dollars of course. When the Great Depression plunged the world financial system into crisis, Germany went down with it.