The most direct answer to this question is no. People are complicated, and when many people interact with one another in complex societies in fleeting situations over many years, the results can be difficult to predict or even to fully understand. History isn't a math equation in which one player can be substituted for another and future events predicted.

But that's not to say that history can't help us to understand our present and avoid some of the more egregious missteps of the past. I work on a project that involves Micronesian history. I was in Micronesia until recently, and spent some time with various foreign diplomats there, most of whom were involved in various foreign aid and economic development schemes. Those diplomats tend to be rotated in on temporary appointments, influenced by current theories and practices that they've gathered in school or through experience in other appointments, and focused on contemporary politics and current events. The recent history of the region isn't well documented, so I often found myself telling some eager young member of some foreign service that his idea had been tried (and had failed) in 1955, 1972, 1987, or what have you. Even broad patterns of indigenous-foreign relationships were very hard for them to access, and in that instance history certainly has a role to play. That absolutely does not mean that my obsessive reading of historical sources enables me to predict the future. But it does provide me with enough context to make some educated guesses, or to offer some words of warning.