What kept banks such as the Medici bank from turning into a Ponzi Schemes?

by doeslikecheesecake

Even apart from banks, what kept businesses from cheating people, around the time of the Renaissance? What sort of recourse could one get if they were cheated?

doeslikecheesecake

Also, did any notable lending services of the time turn into Ponzi Schemes, or similar scams?

FlushStr8ed

All banking is in some sense a gamble. Money is taken in, and loaned out to people who have some inherent default risk.

The fundamental (and very important difference) between banking and a ponzi scheme is that growth of money lent to people is generally a reasonable bet within capitalistic societies. In a ponzi scheme there is no potential payoff that can be rationalised. Money is simply recycled between new players and old while the ponzi operator takes a cut.

For a very simple example, imagine you found a roulette wheel that pays out at 2% +ev to the player each bet. Provided you manage the variance and liabilities well, borrowing money - even money that does not yet 'exist' - to play by this game is a both one of the best strategies, and also a legitimate way to generate a huge amount of extra wealth vs having to only use your own with no leverage.

If you bet too much, or get very unlucky, it can look like you are an idiot and you bankrupt some investors, but overall the astute players will win/are on to a correct bet and will make money over time.

Conversely, if you bet on a roulette wheel that is normal, and beats the player, borrowing money in any shape or form is a long term loser regardless of strategy, and will cost all participants money in the long run. This is what a ponzi scheme is.

In the case of early banks, much of this was understood, some was not. Most operated with a huge margin of safety, large arbitrage operations that helped cushion any swings and/or large political backing/investment that could bail them out/support their trading operations in the case of crisis. The ones that attempted to cheat got killed on the first bank run, just as they do today. Recourse depended very much on their book value, the investor in question and the political standing of the bank and is a very diverse and broad question (as it is today), that requires greater clarification in question to be answered soundly.

Growth projection and the liability management there of is up there with the hardest problems humans have ever faced, so many failed, as they do today. Most of these you will never have heard of due to the innate survival bias of high finance, some made vast sums. Very few could be considered true ponzi schemes provided they had the most basic lending standards and liability management.

Against the Gods - The remarkable story of risk by Peter L Bernstein is a good introduction to much of these issues, as is Demons of our own Design - Markets, Hedge Funds and the Perils of Financial Innovation by Richard Brooks and Deep Risk - How History informs portfolio design by William J Bernstein if you want further reading.

solute24

Related question: What happened to investors if their bank defaults on their investment during that period? Were they totally lost?