If General Paulus had ordered Sixth Army to breakout immediately after being cut off in Operation Uranus, would they realistically have been able to escape? OKH and Hitler recieve a significant amount of blame for ordering Sixth Army to hold its ground while General Manstein's Army Group Don attempted to break through to them, but it seems like many sources on the ground including Manstein himself felt that Sixth Army was already incapable of escaping encirclement. Considering the ammount of Soviet forces in the area building up for Operation Saturn, was the Sixth Army's fate already sealed?
I would say that there was a quite high chance of the breakout succeeding. However, only if done quick enough. There was nearly 300,000 troops & ~500 tanks inside of the pocket, as well as over 50,000 men and ~250 tanks outside. Even though the Soviets far outnumbered the Germans, most of their forces were concentrated on the places where the German lines were closest together, whereas the Germans attacked away from where the Soviets expected. If the 6th Army inside the pocket would have attempted to break out quickly and in the same direction as the relief attempt, I'd say there would be a good chance they would have linked up.
Hope this helps!