I have always heard war was inevitable prior to World War 1. How certain were the European leaders of this? And how much did the commoners know?

by jwil191
DuxBelisarius

^ these answers I've given previously should help; I'd also recommend consulting /u/elos_, who has given an answer on this exact question.

In light of the crises that had taken place prior to 1914, the Moroccan Crises, the Bosnian Crisis and the Balkan Wars, as well as the Anglo-German Naval Arms Race and the Land Arms Race which began in 1912-13, I would say that war was viewed as a possibility by most statesmen of the Great Powers. However, it was only really among political and military circles in Austria and Germany from December 1912 onwards that war was seriously considered inevitable, and preparations were made in earnest for a war in the future.

As for civilian views, I doubt you average European civilian was aware of the power politicking going on, outside of what they read in newspapers or heard 'on the streets'. For a better appraisal of civilian views, I highly recommend this lecture by Michael Neiberg, which discusses civilian reactions to the July Crisis.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iMBD71SB10E

imhotze

The perception that the war was inevitable is a huge part of what made the war inevitable. Obviously war has always been terrible, but it had been the modus opperendi for Europe basically since the end of the Roman Empire, so everyone kind of felt like they just needed to get it out of their systems. The public were largely swept up in patriotic rhetoric and bombarded with propaganda, and recruitment went fairly well early on.

For a great account of what this time was like see "Rites of Spring: The Great War and the Birth of the Modern Age" by Modris Eksteins.