Hard to say. He'd certainly been aware of the country being on the verge of one in 1913 when the issue of Home Rule had the Irish Volunteers and UVF gearing up for action.

The keeping of the six counties was obviously going to be an issue. The fact British arms and munitions were made so readily available is interesting. I believe the provisional government were threatened with British intervention if they couldn't keep their own house in order.

I think everyone was hoping to avoid one but it inevitably happened. Churchill had to have known it was ont he cards.

Interestingly enough, there were a couple of border incidents where IRA and the National Army joined forces to fight the British Army. The IRA campaign continued up north too with Collins still funnelling weapons there.