I spend my undergrad optional classes focused on WW2 and I learned that Hitler didn't have a way to invade Britain and thus low chance of winning. However, Japan was on par with US and had conquer last portion of pacific. If they didn't lose their fleet by "luck" could they hold US long enough to get peace?
I have read War without Mercy and Embracing Defeat: Japan in the Wake of World War II - great books
The Japanese wasn't on par with the US at all. The US had more than 10 times the industrial warmaking capacity that Japan did. For that matter, Germany had 4-5 times the industrial warmaking capacity. Parshall and Tully, authors of Shattered Sword, discuss this here referring to Kennedy's Rise and Fall of the Great Powers for the data. They also go into detail as to the fleet and aircraft capabilities of Japan in the US even in a hypothetical situation where the US fleet was wiped out at Midway for no Japanese losses.