Would an analogy of Nazi Germany vs Russia be fair? (in terms of two world powers in their day?)

What? No, that would not be fair. Judea was one minor province in one of the largest empires ever to exist. You could argue that the Jews' strength was in their zealotry and unwillingness to submit to Rome but is that really a strength when it leads to 2,000 years of exile? Along with the Celts and the Germans, the Jews were probably one of the most irritating thorns in the Roman side but you can't forget the overwhelming force that Rome used to crush the Jews and drive them out of their land after Bar Kokhba's revolt in the 2nd century.

Maybe a better analogy would be Russia in Afghanistan or the US in Vietnam but much more scaled down and the little guy doesn't win.

Would an analogy of Nazi Germany vs Russia be fair?

Only in the sense that Russia was a remote location relative to Germany, and had a lot of snow.

By this I mean: Judea was a far-flung province on the very eastern edge of an empire that, at that time, was "top-heavy" on its western side. Part of what made it possible for the Judea's to hold out for so long during the war was that Rome had to go through a considerable effort to field its war machine over that distance (in terms of actual materiel, but also supply lines and communication). The Judean revolutionaries just had to go out their front doors.