Remember coming across a youtube video of the Historian and the lifespan of civilizations throughout time how there is actually a pattern where it can easily be traced. Can't find the video and I don't remember his name, but I'd love to read about it.
I obviously haven't seen the video in question but this sounds like its describing Ibn Khaldun's work the Muqaddimah, he developed quite a sophisticated theory of political science and sociology based on his reading of Islamic history and the rise and fall of dynasties.