What are some results of computational history?

by hungryascetic

A brief google search convinces me that there is such a thing. I had the thought while playing Civ 5 that complex simulations could be used to test the resiliency of events such as the industrial revolution in Europe, Britain's colonial dominance in the 18th century, WWI and its outcome, etc. I don't know if that's actually feasible, given that you'd have to model millions of artificial agents behaving somewhat realistically, and run it thousands of times to effectively model the randomness of human interaction and decision making. The idea is pretty cool so I hope someone affirms that this is indeed happening.

Itsalrightwithme

A reply to /u/hungryascetic

This is an interesting question; this post is not a direct answer, rather a challenge to the idea you are proposing. Being able to reproduce a phenomena through simulation, while interesting, does not necessarily lead to the kind of analysis you are alluding to. It simply shows that it is possible under similar circumstances, but not that it must be those circumstances that made it so, which is a big part of research in History. However, they are a useful tool for testing a hypothesis. If you can't reproduce it in simulation that includes factors you claim led to the phenomena, then you can draw a negative result from the experiment.

So those modelling tools, usually called "Monte-Carlo simulation", are useful, but much more analysis is usually required. To give a contemporary example, such tools are used in economic research, and we are surely not at a shortage of academic papers that claim discovery of all sorts of economic phenomena and go on to suggest new theories, but there is still no one single accepted view of what is the best way to run economic policy. Have a look at Monte-Carlo simulations used in the study of the exponential growth following the Industrial Revolution, or in other words how to escape from the Malthusian Trap.

As they say, a model is only as good as what you put into the model. That's the bigger challenge.