It may have been that all the CSA had to do to win the Civil War was to not fire the first shot.

I have read that Lincoln was concerned that some, maybe most, Free State governors would not answer any call for troops for federal service unless or until there had been some insult to the flag.

It is also possible that the CSA could have peeled off support from the Western States if CSA could have kept the Port of New Orleans open and guaranteed Western State governors free and open access to the Mississippi River.