If not, did anything come close, or do these fictional stories rely too much on favorable conditions that are not present in real life? Or do we have absolutely no way of knowing, because there isn't enough information to guess and obviously things that were kept secret were not passed down?
I'm not sure exactly what you mean, but there's one example that I can think of that directly parallels a (possible) plot point in the 6th book. Spoilers for the books are in the last paragraph.
First, a bit of backstory. The War of the Roses (an inspiration of Game of Thrones) culminated in 1485, when King Henry VII of the house of Tudor overthrew King Richard III of the house of York. Despite Henry VII marrying a member of the house of York, there were some subjects who challenged the legitimacy of his rule.
Richard Symonds was a priest at Oxford in 1487 when he noticed that one of his students, Lambert Simnel resembled a member of the recently ousted York dynasty. Simnel was just the lowborn son of a local peasant, yet Symonds claimed that he was Edward Plantaganet, the Earl of Warwick and the nephew of the recently disposed King Richard III.
Symonds gathered several other supporters of the house of York in Ireland and they crowned 10 year old Simnel as King Edward VI and claimed the English throne. While many supporters of this rebellion probably realized that Simnel was a fraud, they didn't question anything that gave them the right to rebel.
The rebellion was not very successful. The mostly Irish rebels weren't trusted by English nobles or peasants and found little support. King Henry VII also tried to cut support for the rebellion by pardoning several former rebels and treating them well. The rebel's force of around 8,000 was soon crushed by Henry's 12,000 troops at the battle of Stoke Field.
The "Varys" of this plot, Richard Symonds, was sentenced to life in a bishop's prison and many of the rebelling nobles had the their lands confiscated. This weakened the aristocracy and helped to stabilize Henry's rule. There was never another Yorkist rebellion on the same scale.
Lambert Simnel, who was just a figurehead in the rebellion, did not face any punishment. He worked in the castle's kitchens and eventually became the King's Falconer.
The actual Earl of Warwick had been kept in the Tower of London the entire time. He had been imprisoned at the age of 10 when Henry III came to power in 1485. He was executed in 1499 after an escape attempt involving Perkin Warbeck, another false claimant to the English throne.
Further reading:
http://historytimeshistory.blogspot.com/2013/01/mystery-people-of-history-lambert-simnel.html
Spoiler for A Song of Ice and Fire below.
While it's not confirmed, I think that Young Griff isn't actually a Targaryen and Varys has faked the boy's parentage and apparent claim to the throne. GRRM might be using Simnel as an inspiration for him.
edit: Changed Henry VIII to VII