Is Civil War a predictable event based on measurable factors that are common among nations? Is there historical proof of this in action?

by rake16

I have been curious since a professor told me that civil war was a natural event that is cyclical among nations.

Just curious if there is any historical proof to go along with it.

Thanks!

Commustar

Well, the field of conflict studies there exists the "greed vs grievance" debate. Essentially, the debate revolves around whether civil wars driven by issues of identity (i.e. rebellion on ethnic lines, religious lines, or radicalization of a social class) or whether economic factors and the prospect of material benefit drive some to lead or join a rebel movement.

Of course, pretty much everyone engaging in the debate will concede that both greed and grievance play a role, and the discussion is about which factor is the more important one, and which is the subservient factor. Or put another way, does greed or grievance better predict when and where a civil conflict will erupt.

Paul Collier and Anke Hoeffler are economists who specialize in African economies at Oxford, and they have put forward the Collier-Hoeffler model. They identify certain factors that increase the likelihood of civil war, such as prior incidence of civil conflict. But, essentially their argument comes down on the "greed" side of the debate.

They argue that economic factors like the presence of lootable resources (minerals, timber, oil, etc) or sponsorship from an outside patron (e.g. US, China, and USSR in Africa during the Cold War) can make rebellions viable.

If you are interested in further reading with specific case-studies, I would recommend checking out Paul Collier and Nicholas Sambanis' two-volume study Understanding Civil War: Evidence and Analysis vol 1 and vol 2

PDF warning for all 3 of those links.