I remember reading an article a few months back where it was explained that Europe was not a powder keg before WWI, as I have thought (and been taught) for a long time. I cannot remember the exact details of the article, but it basically stated that before every (or nearly every) regional war there would be patterns in countries' economies. It stated that those patterns were not present before WWI and thus it is an indication that countries thought that any disputes that were going on would pass given enough time.

I guess what I'm asking is, can a case be made, based on those economic patterns (assuming they exist and I'm not just imagining things), that Europe was not on the brink of war and that if the Archduke weren't murderer, the Great War may not have happened?

Note that I don't want to start a dispute about whether or not the war would have happened under different circumstances. Just want to find out whether Europe's economy may be an indication that things may have went a different way.

Also, if you have any idea what article I am referring to, I would appreciate it if you posted a link or told me where to find it.