Were there any telltale signs? When did things start becoming especially bad for the jews and other groups that were persecuted?
From an earlier answer of mine
Although the popular image of the Third Reich's Jewish policies is one of a consistent policy towards genocidal ends, the policies that morphed into the Holocaust did not evolve in a straight line, but proceeded along a more circuitous and crooked path. Without getting too much into the weeds of Holocaust historiography, the Third Reich between 1933 and 1942 had a Jewish policy that was consistent in its end goal of a Jew-free Germany, but was inconsistent in the means to achieve that end.
The Third Reich's approach to German Jews between 1933-39 illustrates the contradictions of Nazi Jewish policies. On one hand, the Third Reich purged Jews from government service and private businesses and redefined their civil rights transforming Jews from citizens into aliens. But while the message of the state was clear- Jews do not belong in the new Germany- the Third Reich did not posses a clear strategy to accomplish this end. The Nuremberg Laws redefined Jewish citizenship and the civil code as it applied to Jews, but while it delimited what German Jews could not do in Germany, it was incredibly vague on what activities and rights German Jews possessed. Ironically, the Nuremberg Laws increased the number of German Jews in the state. The Laws defined a Jew via genealogy, therefore converts, non-practicing, or those who were the grandchildren of three Jews became Jews. Jews of all sorts (practicing and non-practicing) accounted for just under 1% of the German population in 1933, but the laws slightly increased this number and added the nebulous category of Mischlinge (mixed) into this definition. The state also held that all Jewish property was ill-gotten and attempted to fleece any Jews from leaving the country, but this made emigration of German Jews much harder to accomplish as the world was amidst a global depression. Ritualistic violence against Jewish property and the humiliation of German Jews became a normal sight after Hitler's seizure of power, but the Third Reich had yet to make the final leap to murder as a means to resolve this situation by 1939.
These multiple, self-made crises encouraged individuals and agencies within the Third Reich to come up with their own approaches to solve the Jewish question. The SS in particular took great interest in this issue; Himmler saw racial matters as the special preserve of the SS and others within the SS apparatus perceived the Jewish question as a means to enhance the SS's power. Eichmann, for example, pioneered a more novel approach to Jewish property after the Austrian Anschluß in 1938 where the SS's control of expropriated Jewish property would be used finance emigration. The onset of the war accelerated this process of casting about for "solutions" because German arms had conquered areas with larger numbers of Jews, some of whom had fled Germany such as the Frank family in the Netherlands. The Madagascar Plan was an example of this type of thinking as the Foreign Ministry conceived of an exile space for Jews. Himmler likely initially conceived of conquered ex-Soviet space as a dumping ground for Europe's Jews and the extermination camps emerged as an expedient solution when it became clear in the winter of 1941/42 that the war with the USSR was going to last much longer than previously envisioned in the prior summer.
It needs to be stressed that the genocidal aspects was always present in the Third Reich's approach to Jews. A number of NSDAP officials were upset over the violence of Kristallnacht, but not because Jews were killed, but rather because it destroyed Jewish property that could be used by the Reich. The Madagascar Plan was pretty much explicitly designed to relocate Jews into an area where they would die from tropical diseases and the initial plans for a post-Barbarossa Soviet space envisioned Jews being worked to death. But the overall war situation and immediate needs channeled Jewish policy into a more immediate genocide. The Einsatzgruppen mass shootings in Barbarossa, as well as similar activities by SS troops during the invasion of Poland and Yugoslavia in 1939 and 1941, had crossed a Rubicon in which the solution to the presence of Jews in the German sphere of influence was to murder them. The antisemitism of the Nazi elite made them all to receptive to extreme solutions like mass murder and indifferent to any moral problems associated with it. Hitler's own powerful, but ill-defined, position within the Third Reich's power structure made him an important bellweather for extreme policies.