My confusion probably stems from this source, which by historian standards is probably a garbage source, but I wanted to find a visual representation of the Ancien Regime's finances just before the revolution.
The pie charts but the Crown's expenditures at 610 million livres and its revenue at 585 million livres in 1780. That's just a deficit of 25 million livres. Or a 4% gap that needed to be plugged.
If this source is misleading, what was the financial situation of the ancien regime? If this source is accurate, what external factors made it more difficult to plug the deficit with modest economies than it seems it would be?
This question is in two parts - I'll answer the second part first as I hope it will make better sense this way. I imagine I'll brush over a lot of history and terminology so please do ask if anything is not clear. I also apologise if I drop in random names and French phrases - I'll try to clear these up once posted to make this more readable! My sources will be listed at the end of this post.
"How did they fail so fantastically to get ahead of their finances?"
This is best answered by looking at why the government failed to reform more generally, which can largely be attributed to the actions of the monarchy itself. I want to take a long-term approach which doesn't just look at Louis XVI, but also his predecessors, in order to explain fully.
The economy was also badly damaged by the disruption of colonial trade. This was because of...
This was in the context of relative peace following the death of Louis XIV (1715). War began in earnest in 1733 over succession to the Polish throne. The War of Austrian Succession (1740-8) and Seven Years' War (1756-63) were both massively costly major international conflicts. This was followed by the American War of Independence (1778-83). This also brushes over many smaller conflicts, and periods in which France was forced to mobilise and ready itself for war. Louis XVI even started preparations for the American war shortly after the Boston Tea Party. To quote Félix: "If one must seek an overall explanation for the financial crisis of the ancien régime, only war - and the policy of France's grandeur - can provide it". I will expand on the costs of this in the following post, but for now, it should suffice to say that warfare meant the monarchy was incapable of reigning in its finances.
Yet the influence of the parlements must not be overstated. The parlements were not united, between one another or even internally. Deep divisions between bodies meant their opposition to the government was far weaker than it potentially could have been, with opposition often short-lived and/or uncoordinated. Relaxations of the grain trade (1763-4) were strongly condemned by some parlements, but hailed by others. Under Maupeou as Chancellor, the parlements were even dissolved. The government faced little trouble in doing so, and some parlements willingly cooperated in Maupeou's new courts. Further, and more importantly, Doyle has rightly argued that the strength of the parlements was inversely related to the strength of the government. Louis XIV encountered little resistance after 1675 because the parlements knew any serious opposition risked a harsh response from the government, such as the exiles of the parlements of Rennes and Bordeaux. Under Cardinal de Fluery (d. 1743), and Maurepas (d. 1781), times of united government, the parlements mounted little opposition. Yet during times of weaker and divided government, such as between 1750 and 1771, opposition from the parlements was very strong indeed, with the Parlement of Paris even sending “princes of the blood” invitations to their sessions in order to frighten the government.
Hence, a weak government led to greater resistance from the parlements. Which leads to...
4a) Factionalism: The resistance of the parlements was massively exacerbated by the monarchy's sponsorship of factionalism in government. Divisions between ministers fomented opposition in the parlements. Whereas their predecessor Louis XIV sought to limit factions, Louis XV in particular strongly encouraged it following the death of Fluery (1743). Unlike the ministers of Louis XIV, who were willing to prevent the judges wielding political power, Louis XV found that ministerial interference in the parlements likewise meant the parlements increasingly interfered in ministerial and court politics. Louis XV was motivated to do this because he wished to avoid being influenced too heavily by any one single party. But the consequence was complete inconsistency in government, and limitations on financial reform put in place by a confrontational magistrature. This is highlighted by the example of Bertin, who incurred the disdain of the parlements (encouraged by his rival Choiseul) after refusing to revoke the unpopular wartime levies. This disdain let to his fall, as Louis XV was unable and unwilling to sustain a minister unable to maintain the support of the parlements. Under divided governments it was easier for parlement to resist changes, as rival ministers used the parlements as forums for opposition to the government: a minister who opposed a particular policy would take the side of parlements attacking it, knowing well that the monarchy was disinclined to conflict with the judiciary. The rivalry between Machault and d’Argenson is a typical example of how ministers used the parlements to stir up opposition to government policy, the experience of Bertin against Choiseul another. So, Louis XV and Louis XVI incited divisions in their governments, which meant that the parlements gained greater authority to resist changes.
I'm close to going over the word limit, please see the replies for the continued answer - my sources will be cited at the end.
There are a few attenuating factors as to what made the situation in France untenable at the time. One of the main points being that money is no substitute for food (especially in an early modern world economy just barely globalizing) so any theoretical wealth in France could not be readily liquidated into goods and services.
However, I think if you want to start looking at sources I would recommend the primary source of the Compte Rendeu (which should be, at least partly, translated). This will explain the crowns mistaken financing of their own debt if you see how much cooking the books went into that report which effectively ignored the heavy outstanding 'extraordinary' loans to paint a rosy picture of the annual revenue and budget that was swamped with paying the interest on the borrowed principle.
There was also the policy of 'useful splendor' in which 'frivolous' spending was endorsed and increased by the finance minister (the one between Necker's terms) in order to reduce the interest rate on their mass of existing and future borrowing needs thus paying down principle and interest with lower interest loans to slowly rebuild the health of the balance sheet. This policy backfired due to ministerial shuffling in the position of the finance minister (interesting link that the question of the king and his ministers will also bring down Charles in 1830) and due to not being very sound as a concept in general.
Lastly, I would emphasize the government of France was legally limited in some ways that hadn't been a problem since his grandfather's (Louis XIV) time. You can compare this as to maybe the idea that we might need a constitutional amendment to fix a particular political problem though this has been done very infrequently in the last half century. This meant that the King wanted to avoid any changes of government manner at all costs (particularly the costs of high debt) as this would have involved consulting bodies that necessarily were primarily composed of his opponents in large part, namely the regional parliaments and the Estates General.
Sources are tricky because the historiography of the French revolution itself has been a force in history via different attempts to explain what happened. I like Tackett's writings insofar as they cover the pre-revolutionary period you seem to be interested in. Francois Furet might also be a writer of interest for you but it's hard to recommend a trusted survey historian of depth.
/u/frederfred1 covered much of what I wanted to say much more comprehensively, but I started this a couple of hours ago and figured I'd finish the post -- what the hell. The main part of understanding the problem is that it was a vicious cycle of increasing debt that necessitated an unpalatable (to the King) solution which lead to greater failure. A sort of catch-22 for the monarchy that would have only hurt its power any way it chose.
I am on mobile, so apologies that some dates and numbers are generalities, but it feels like nobody has discussed a huge component in the Haitian Revolution, which is partially responsible/overlaps for the conditions of revolutionary France. At its height, the island was producing 2/3rds of all of France's exports, and when the country was lost a major revenue stream for France was disrupted.
In fact, Haiti is also partially responsible for the defeat of Napoleon, as Napoleon sent some 300,000 troops to the island to recapture it and failed ... which was happening at the same time ash is failure in Russia.
Fun fact: the major reason the Louisiana purchase was sold to the U.S. was because that land was going to be used to supply San Domingue (Haiti), but once they lost the island Napoleon sold it off (also because he were cash strapped).
Source: Avengers of the New World by Laurent DuBois