In Daniel Branch's Kenya and he mentions how in 1965 and 1971, two attempted coups were thwarted but he implies that in reality there was little too them; how developed were these plots? Were they a serious threat?
For example, with regard to 1965, he quotes one intelligence source as saying hundreds of weapons were obtained from Odinga's office but then goes on to say that no substantive evidence was ever presented? Also, with regard to 1971, although he states that a plot definitely existed, that it was little more than a 'one in a million' chance of success.
TLDR: Were the 1965 and 1971 coup plots against the Kenya government genuine threats or were they not really credible?
Thanks.
Hello there, fishymcgee! I know you've asked this question a bunch of times by now so I hope the following answer will be of some help to you.
As your reading of Daniel Branch tells us, Branch implies that the two possibly planned coup in 1965 and the actually planned coup in 1971 were of no real importance and did not seriously threaten the government of Kenya. He is not wrong in making these claims, despite the fact that historians don't seem to know what Odinga had actually planned to do with the weapons that were confiscated from him and other possible coup planners.
Although a very real attempt at a coup would occur in 1982, the two planned coups in 1965 and 1971 were far from being close to the same scale or with the same possible chances of success. Some historians go as far as to argue that Odinga himself didn't believe that he would be able to succeed with a coup in 1965. As Cullen points out, the absence of retaliation by the Kenyan government against the planned coup-makers, after the Kenyan Army raided their homes and confiscated weapons in early April 1965, is possible proof that not even President Jomo Kenyatta took the plans too seriously. Cullen goes as far as to call the planned coup "most likely largely fictional".
However, it is important to point out that there was a tension felt by Kenyatta and other conservative members of the Kenya African National Union towards Odinga who led the radical faction of the KANU. A real divide existed in the KANU by 1965 and Kenyatta considered Odinga real threat whose possible ambitions for power could throw the newly independent Kenya into chaos. There were exaggerated rumours during the time about an imminent coup due to these tensions and these rumours were used to strike against the Odinga and the radical faction of the KANU to limit their power and influence. At the same time, these rumours were apparently strong enough for Kenyatta to ask the British government for help to prevent a possible coup. The possibility of a coup was taken seriously by the British government. A coup would threaten their their interests in Kenya as well as possibly lead to the Soviet Union getting a foothold in Kenya through Odinga. The British military went as far as to draw up plans for a military intervention, Operation Binnacle, if that would happen and sent British ships to Mombasa. In the end, as we know, nothing happened. There are contradictions in Kenyatta's thoughts and behaviour towards the rumours. On one hand, he did request British military intervention in the case of a coup. On the other, as pointed out above, little was done to punish any possible coup planners and there are still many questions about the weapons confiscated and possible plans in 1965. With hindsight, we can deem it to be implausible that the Kenyan government would have been overthrown in 1965.
If we move forward to 1971, we get the same answers. Although the nature of the planned coup was different, it can't be called 'largely fictional' and was planned by members of the Kenyan Armed Forces as opposed to a rival political faction, there is little evidence that suggests that it would have succeeded. It's been called 'largely amateurish' and Branch is correct in judging the chance of their success small due to the fact to the strong grip that Kenyatta had on the loyalty of the Kenyan army. As part of his strategy to prevent coups, Kenyatta had worked hard to make sure that many in the military leadership and officer corps were paid off well, that important positions were held by Kikuyu officers and created a paramilitary force within the Kenyan police, the General Service Unit, to work as a counterweight. The existence of plotters within a space that was considered loyal by Kenyatta should make the image of a loyal Kenyan army more complicated, but it's worth to point out that it worked in the long run and that a reason for the plotters small success was the fact that the majority did remain loyal. If we go back to 1965, the fact that Odinga belonged to the Luo ethnic group meant that he would have had a hard time finding support in the Kikuyu dominated armed forces if he against all odds had gone through with the possible coup.
So, to finally answer your question after all these valiant attempts by you: How close was the Kenyan government to being overthrown in 1965 and 1971? Not close at all.
Sources:
"Operation Binnacle: British plans for military intervention against a 1965 coup in Kenya" by Poppy Cullen in The International History Review, 2016.
"How Not to Institutionalize Civilian Control: Kenya's Coup Prevention Strategies, 1964-1997" by Boubacar N'Diaye in Armed Forces & Society, 28:4 2002.