A question was asked in an /r/HeavySeas post about how many ships would be lost out of 100 sailing from Norway to America, as an example. I found an article that seemed to indicate a roughly 10% loss rate for specific route, but am curious if someone with more expertise and knowledge can comment how many ships were generally expected to be lost in the Age of Sail.
We can answer this with reference to the very complete archives of the Dutch East India Company, covering the period from 1602 to 1795. The relevant data was collated by Gaastra and Bruijn in the three volumes of their Dutch-Asiatic Shipping, available online via The Dutch East India Company's shipping between the Netherlands and Asia 1595-1795.
The ships in the VOC's fleet were making some of the longest and toughest voyages of their day, sailing from Europe to South East Asia and Japan and back. Starting with around 76 outward bound voyages in the period 1602-10, the VOC peaked at 382 in the decade 1720-30 - and 319 return voyages in the same period.
Over the life of the company, the VOC lost a total of 105 ships wrecked on the outward voyage, and a further 36 captured, together representing 2% of the total number of ships involved in the trade, of which half came to grief in the steep coastal waters of the Dutch coast and English Channel.
Losses on the return voyage from Asia to Europe totalled 141 vessels wrecked and a further 28 captured during various periods of warfare. Total losses on the return voyage come to 5% of the total of ships engaged. In contrast to the voyage out, the Indian Ocean was the most dangerous place for returning vessels.