Without a doubt St. Pope John Paul II would have been viewed as a threat to the Soviet infrastructure and rule in Eastern Europe. Per the New Yorker, and I’m currently also looking to check Russian archives on the matter, the Soviet intelligence head called the Warsaw KGB Chief station shortly after the election of Pope JPII expressing anger. The New Yorker piece also claims that the KGB ran an internal investigation into the Papal election and falsely concluded that there was a massive conspiracy against them, also heightening concerns. There’s also a semi-famous quote drifting around that the Soviets sent out to schoolteachers in Poland prior to the Papal visit in 1979 (taken directly from the New Yorker link below)

 

{: .break one} ** The Pope is our enemy. . . . Due to his uncommon skills and great sense of humor he is dangerous, because he charms everyone, especially journalists. Besides, he goes for cheap gestures in his relations with the crowd, for instance, [he] puts on a highlander’s hat, shakes all hands, kisses children, etc. . . . It is modeled on American presidential campaigns. . . . Because of the activities of the Church in Poland our activities designed to atheize the youth not only cannot diminish but must intensely develop. . . . In this respect all means are allowed and we cannot afford sentiments.

  1979 Visit To Poland

 

We’re going move into territory I know better now. Although the Papacy had been visiting Communist states for decades at this point, St. JPII’s speeches, especially in Poland, were pretty anti-Soviet in content. At one point, he directly stated that “there can be no Europe without the independence of Poland” (Washington Post, 3 June 1979), and made multiple calls for human rights and the preservation of freedom, especially the expression of the Catholic state in Poland.

Alongside this it is important to remember the context of the visit. Pope John Paul II was from Krakow, the first non-Italian pope in centuries, and Poland is a country that identifies as over 90% Catholic. The Soviets would have in no way missed the potential impact, which was then realized when his speeches helped spark the inception of the Solidarity movement that eventually led to Polish independence.

  It’s also important to note that, despite the specifics of John Paul II’s actions as a threat to the Soviet regime, any new Pope would have almost certainly been regarded as a threat by the Russians, as they would be following upon the legacy of Pope Pius XI’s statement in 1937 that Communism inherently a false ideology and mutually exclusive with Christianity. Pius XII extended this with a heavily anti-communist agenda and the formation relationships with the West. Although John XXIII softened the tone of the agenda a bit, he still specifically worked via “Vatican Ostpolitik” to strengthen the Catholic Church in Eastern Europe and stem the Soviets. And despite Paul VI being more open to dialogue with the East, his emphasis on supporting developing nations put him in conflict with similar Soviet attempts.

Your post also has me curious as to when exactly in the 1978 Papal election-1979 visit to Poland timeframe the Soviets first began to realize how much of a threat he was. If anyone else here knows, feel free to chime in, otherwise I’m going to poke around in some Russian archives I’m aware of and see if I can dig anything up.

I can provide more sources if needed but I’m going to link the New Yorker piece here https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2005/04/11/john-paul-ii