Before I begin, I will put a disclaimer that the vast majority of contemporary historiography on Iranian history does not favor Muhammad Reza Shah Pahlavi and his policies, and regards him as a "bad ruler". Regardless of the author writing, nobody can justify the Shah's brutal regime that tortured and murdered thousands of dissenters, political or religious, to solidify his power over Iran. Of course, one also cannot forget the advancement of women rights (to an extent still exists today) and rights of religious minorities by Shah, especially during the White Revolution in 1963. However, one can objectively say the pro-Khomeini/Islamic Republic camp will exaggerate some inhumane acts by the Shah against the Iranian people. My point being these numbers becomes harder to investigate whether or not they are true because the Iranian government are very protective and secretive about any historical analysis during the Shah's rule, as not only is the Shah demonized to the same level as the devil, but also the Iranian government is keen on upholding their narrative of the Shah's evilness.

 

First, lets take a look at where the number "15,000" and "32" come from. In "Islam and Revolution: Writings and Declarations," it wrote:

The arrest of Imam Khomeini brought popular disgust with the Shah’s regime to a climax, and a major uprising shook the throne. In Qum, Tehran, Shiraz, Mashhad, Isfahan, Kashan and other cities, unarmed demonstrators confronted the Shah’s U.S. trained and equipped army, which, upon the command to shoot to kill, slaughtered not less than 15,000 people in the space of a few days. The date on which this uprising began, Khurdad 15 according to the solar calendar used in Iran, marked a turning point in the modern history of Iran.

Keep in mind this is written by Hamid Algar, Professor of Persian and Islamic Studies at UC Berkley, that appeared in the short introduction of Ayatollah Khomeini, and not by Khomeini himself. Dr. Hamid Algar, who translated some of Khomeini's writings and declarations, wrote in the foreword, "In the introduction, I have made no attempt to document my summary biography of Imam Khomeini, because I am engaged in writing a comprehensive and fully documented account of the Imam’s life and achievements, to which this anthology is intended as a companion volume." In Algar's later work, "Roots of the Islamic Revolution in Iran" in 1983, he includes the same number, "it has been estimated that by the time the uprising had been crushed, some six days later, approximately 15,000 people had been killed" without any citation.

On the other hand, the number "32", a rather very specific number, has some credibility to it. In "A Question of Numbers", Kadivar wrote the findings by Emad al-Din Baghi contradicted the statements made by Khomeini and his successors who claimed that "60,000 men, women and children were martyred by the Shah's regime." Baghi, who was hired by the Martyrs Foundation to collect the names of victims of the anti-Shah revolution classifying them by age, sex, education, profession and address, was told not to release the names to the public. In the article it states:

The statistical breakdown of victims covering the period from 1963 to 1979 adds up to a figure of 3,164. Of this figure 2,781 were killed in nation wide disturbances in 1978/79 following clashes between demonstrators and the Shah's army and security forces. Baghi has no reason to doubt these figures and believes that it is probably the most comprehensive number available with the possible exception of a few names that were not traced.

During the years separating the arrest of Khomeini on 5th June 1963 for instigating the riots against the Shah's White Revolution and his return from exile on 1st February 1979, most of the 3,164 victims were in Tehran, Rey and Shemiran and 731 were killed in riots in the provinces which constitutes 14% of the country. Most of the casualties were in central Tehran and the poorer southern areas. Of this number 32 "martyrs" belong to the 1963 riots who were killed in 19 different parts of the Iranian capital. All were male and from southern Tehran.

Despite this revelation all officially sanctioned books in Iran dealing with the history of the Islamic revolution write of "15,000 dead and wounded". Such wild figures have found its way in Western accounts.

Baghi's account seemed to be the most credible out of the all the current historiography. Baghi was born on 1962 into a family exiled to Iraq with his father's dissenting views against the Shah. After the 1979 Islamic Revolution, he moved to Qom to study Theology for 12 years. However, with the rise of the reformist movement in 1996 which led to the presidency Mohammad Khatami, he worked with several reformist newspapers as writer consultant and editor, all of which were banned one after the other by the authoritarian forces, and led to his arrest. He was released from prison in February 2003, but continued to fight for human rights of prisoners in Iran.

thank you for this I am writing up a research project on the fall of the shah and these figures are incredibly useful.