As most people on the planet, I think, I have a rather biased opinion of the events in WW2.
I've always believed that the battle of Khalkin Gol was a mayor reason Imperial Japan turned its expansion from Asia to the Pacific even risking confrontation with the West.
This was reinforced by my understanding of certain advantages the Red Army had in the areas of logistics and supply over the Kwantung and Japanese armies AND a (relatively) recent article by Prof. Tsuyoshi Hasegawa, in which he argues that although the bombings were important, the thing that forced Japan to unconditional surrender was the Soviet Union declaring war on Imperial japan.
How accurate or inaccurate is this belief of mine?
Can you send a link to the article by that professor? I would love to read it.
Within the Japanese military state there was a general desire to solve the country's economic problems by taking resources, such as coal, oil and so on, that its growing economy required. The two paths appeared to be to expand into the north, which was favoured by the Army, or into the south, which was favoured by the Navy.
You are correct that Khalkin Gol was a turning point. Up until then the strategy of manufacturing "incidents" had worked well for the Army, but they were unprepared for the numbers and motorised equipment that the Soviets possessed. Because of this the two sides signed a non-aggression pact, keeping the USSR out of any war between Japan and other major powers. When the USSR broke the pact late in the war, that was an important factor in ending the idea of negotiating a settlement, because the USSR were being touted within the Japanese government by doves as potential mediators between Japan and the Allies.
The other side to the story is that the Bomb was dropped to display American power to the USSR, as well as to try and bring Japan to an unconditional surrender (the condition they always wanted was to preserve the emperor, which, looking from today's perspective, was achieved. Hirohito was more of a figurehead ruler whose symbolic power as a sovereign was used to spread militaristic ideas, than some kind of mastermind behind his empire's expansion and defeat).