When the UNIVAC I computer accurately predicted the results of the 1952 Presidential Election, what data or variables was it using?

by moocowincog

Many articles state the machine's capabilities, IO methods, and various statistics, but they never seem to mention how.. Step 1:Get a fancy computer Step 2: ??? Step 3: Computer accurately predicted an election.

SomeAnonymous

I'm not an expert myself, and AskHistorians is known to produce some really rather niche and yet incredibly in-depth answers, but you might also be served by asking this in a more computer science–oriented subreddit, given that you're asking about the construction and programming of a computer, albeit a historical one.

SpeckledJim

Ira Chinoy made a PhD thesis of this episode in 2010: https://drum.lib.umd.edu/bitstream/handle/1903/10504/Chinoy_umd_0117E_11395.pdf

There's also a nice summary here: https://ethw.org/UNIVAC_and_the_1952_Presidential_Election

It seems there wasn't anything particularly new in the method - this sort of forecasting has been published by newspapers since the 19th century, using results from past elections and past and current opinion/exit polls. What was new here was that, because of the computer, they were able to feed in actual vote tallies as they arrived and update the predictions in near-real time. It was something of a stunt and not without its glitches.