As historians, do you think mathematical and computational approahces can make a significant impact to history, or is history a fundemntally qualitative field?

by HenryWu002

So I’m aware of past attempts to make history a science, to provide quantitative predictable theories, but they’ve never become particularly popular. In recent years, I’ve seen more and more mentions of mathematical or computational approaches to history (“M/CAtH”), these however being adopted much slower than in say sociology or economics.

My question is whether, as historians, you you that the study of history would be significantly benefited by M/CAtH (these being M/C models of the mechanisms and the behaviour rather than just stats or economic data), or is history a fundamentally qualitative field?

Links:

A) http://arxiv.org/abs/1606.03433

B) http://peterturchin.com/cliodynamics/

C) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cliodynamics

D) http://cliodynamics.ru/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=133&Itemid=70

E) https://www.nature.com/news/human-cycles-history-as-science-1.11078

F) http://peterturchin.com/cliodynamics/why-do-we-need-mathematical-history/

G) http://peterturchin.com/PDF/Arise_Clio_Nature.pdf

HenryWu002

My 0.02:

  • I think the answer depends on whether you view histories task as (1) exploring the histories of societies and cultures and understanding specific question such as “why Rome fell” or (2) to understand the mechanisms and forces of the dynamic nature of society.
  1. For the “answering small questions” goal I can see how M/CAtH could be considered of little use (although link A in OP does give a good example of its use, in analysing the networks of rulers.
  2. For the “understanding the mechanisms” goal, I would see M/CAtH as incredibly powerful tools to allow for specific predictions, and then testing of those predictions. While entirely fictional, Asimov’s Psychohistory, is sort of the ultimate goal of this “understanding the mechanisms” goal and demonstrates mathematics being used for prediction and testing.
wjrii

While we are waiting, I might point you to THIS EPISODE of the AskHistorians podcast that discusses using quantitative "social network analysis" to gain insight into the Salem witch trials.