No not at all, the problems Japan and Germany faced were a lack of resources, their inability to wage a large attritional war, and the lack of unified high command or goals between powers.

Let’s start with if Japan doesn’t attack Pearl Harbor, this is impossible for Japan not to do. Japan by 1941 was in the effects of a trade embargo with the US, UK, and Dutch. These powers were alarmed by the Japanese expansion into China and French Indochina after seizing it when France fell. This embargo really hit Japan hard who relied heavily on imports such as iron, copper, rubber, steel, and more importantly oil. The Japanese got 80-85% of her oil from the US. And without this vital resource it could not move its planes, trucks, tanks, or ships. This really put Japan in a hard place and it only had two options: 1. end it’s hostilities with China and leave the area or 2. Secure the Dutch East Indies and British Malaya. There was no way in hell the Japanese government was about to give up its gains in China and risk a resurgent China possibly attacking them later.

So the option became to secure the Southern Pacific. You might ask why attack in the East Indies and Malaya? These areas are rich in resources like iron, tin, rubber and oil. Most of the world’s rubber grew naturally in these areas and would be needed for tires and other instruments. And while the British and Dutch are busy with their war in Europe, they won’t have time to send reinforcements on the other side of the globe if the Japanese attacked. This helped Japan who’s army was strong and well trained, but was not up to the task of facing regular troops. They were better equipped to fight colonial or garrison troops along side Asian forces in the area. Who usually lacked tanks, heavy guns, and better equipment. The Japanese would have all these things, and the European troops would have to wait for reinforcements from the home countries. And since Japan basically had naval superiority in the area, no help would come in time. But the only problem was the US, it’s navy is the only thing that could stop Japanese ambitions. Japan knew this and so planned the attack on Pearl Harbor to wipe out the Pacific fleet and have free reign over the Pacific. When Japan attacked, it missed a lot strategic objectives. Such as the repair yards in the Harbor, not to mention the sub bases, all the US carriers were also fine and the US Pacific fleet oil storage yards were untouched. If this would have been lost, the US Pacific fleet would not have been able to move for months or close to a year.

So let’s say Japan doesn’t attack Pearl Harbor, what would happen? It gains absolutely nothing and then it runs out of fuel for everything. Now it must deal with China and possibly other European nations and the US. With no supplies to its troops, no reinforcements able to come from the home islands, its navy stuck in port due to no fuel, and its entire war machine grind to a halt. This was not an option for Japan, the only option it had left was to attack the US, secure the East Indies, and then fortify it’s holdings and maybe force a peace treaty with the US. It really had no other option than to just take out the Pacific fleet and try to hopefully force a peace.

As for Hitler not invading the Soviet Union. This avoids the fact that Hitler is a Nazi and his ideology of how much he hates communism. Hitler refers in his books Mein Kampf and many of his speeches of how Communism is evil and how Judeo-Bolshevism has spread throughout the world and it must be stopped. He made it clear that war with the Soviet Union and the lesser races especially the Slavs would happen. He was going to attack the Soviet Union, there was no doubt about that. But he needed time to gather enough resources and men to launch his attack. Now the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact they had was not really an alliance like the Allies, but more of a non aggression pact and trade deal. It’s not a true alliance and Stalin even knew this, but he knew he was no where near ready to fight the Nazis yet. His mistake was trusting a guy who literally called for the death of his country and all the people in it. He needed more time to build up his forces and infrastructure.

Germany was also on the clock to win this war fast. The longer this conflict goes on, the longer the Allies can pool their resources and men from all across the globe to join the fight. Germany also suffered a heavy deficit of oil on top of other resources and food. While the Soviet Union helped a bit with trading them these resources, it could be cut off at any time. While Romania helped with this with their oil fields, it wasn’t enough for Germany to keep going like this. So when it launched its invasion of the Soviet Union, this was the emergency moment. It could not put off invading Russia any longer and it hoped that it could secure more resources to help alleviate these concerns. And after the disastrous Winter War where Russia lost huge amounts of men and equipment to the smaller Finnish force, it looked like Russia could be easily conquered. Attacking the Soviet Union was once again the only option for the Germans as they lacked many resources and would continue to be in a deficit of oil until it found a major oil source. But even if we ignore these, Russia would have eventually attacked Germany. It was not a question of if they would attack, but when they would attack. Stalin knew he wasn’t ready, but when he was he would have attacked the Germans.

The Axis powers were doomed to fail unless it had a lot more resources on hand and didn’t make some strategic blunders during their campaigns. But when you go up against three world powers who have more people, resources, industrial output, and an alliance that all worked together and helped each other during the war, its pretty clear the Axis stood no chance.

Sources:

Ferris, John, and Evan Mawdsley. The Cambridge History of the Second World War.: Fighting the War. Cambridge University Press, 2015.

Glantz, David M., and Jonathan Mallory House. When Titans Clashed: How the Red Army Stopped Hitler. University Press of Kansas, 2015.