Hi all
So im not asking abouth wether or not churchill said this or not (its almost certainly true) but wether his assessment had any merit i have always assumed that japan would have done what Germany did in WW1 and surrenderd after loosing all the ground they gained but im a archvist not a military historian so i could use a hand !
No. Even the most pessimistic analysis by the Americans only anticipated it lasting until sometime in 1946. It would not take 5 years to invade Japan. Anyone who claims it would is just trying to justify the atomic bombings.
The US Strategic Bombing Survey concluded in 1946 that
Based on a detailed investigation of all the facts, and supported by the testimony of the surviving Japanese leaders involved, it is the Survey's opinion that certainly prior to 31 December 1945, and in all probability prior to 1 November 1945 [the date for the invasion of Kyushu], Japan would have surrendered even if the atomic bombs had not been dropped, even if Russia had not entered the war, and even if no invasion had been planned or contemplated.
Which you don't have to believe or take as face value, but it gives some definite bounds to the issue.