So my advice is less useful than it might be, as I have never studied or worked in the US system. Various of our users have, and you seem to be familiar with their advice, so I won't rehash it.

What I would push back on slightly is the idea that you can, by dint of your qualifications, hard work, intellect or even strategy, you can make sure that you clear the bar and earn an academic career. The insidious thing about academia right now is that no one knows where the bar even is. You can optimise yourself as a candidate as best you can, and there is zero guarantee it will work out in the short or long term - I know plenty of amazingly talented teachers and researchers who have not made it, and it has nothing to do with their qualifications or outputs or networking or anything else under their control.

In other words, academia is increasingly resembling a lottery. With so many overqualified candidates out there, success is becoming a matter of luck. Sure, you can do the most you can to make the most of your luck - but so is literally every other candidate for every job. Until the structure of the job market changes, there simply isn't a straightforward path to a career any more, no matter how carefully you plan and prepare.

It's your choice whether to give this a try - I'm obviously a massive hypocrite, because I tried and have so far been luckier than I had any right to expect post-PhD. But you need to rethink the mindset that this is a meritocratic game any more.

"Don't get a PhD!" is not really the correct advice, I don't think....the message should be "don't expect to get a job teaching in a university" or more specifically don't expect to get a tenured job teaching in one place for the rest of your life.

But these are really separate problems. Some people seem to be working adjunct job after adjunct job with no security and they move around constantly, all for the chance just to be teaching, which...well, good for them if that's what they want, but personally I just ignore the academic job market entirely. You can use your skills in other ways! I can still do academic work and publish and participate in conferences. It's a bit harder without the fuller access to resources that I would have if I worked in a university, but not impossible.

We call this several things - being an "independent" or "contingent" scholar, "alt-academia", "academic-adjacent"...but whatever it is, you wouldn't be alone!

So you should do a PhD if you want! Why not? It's fun! But getting a tenured job, meh, probably not.

You appear to have thought this over very thoroughly. Most people don't until they are already enrolled and in the middle of the program staring down the prospect of not landing a TT academic job.

I went through the same thought process you did after I completed my MA and after a talk with my advisor I decided to pursue the Phd. I finished in 2017 but was not able to land a TT job, despite teaching experience and publications. I did at least get a nice job in higher ed, and have been adjuncting on the side while working on my own research on the side. The market is horrible and you know that. Even graduates from Top 10 programs have something like a 50% chance of landing a TT job within 5 years. With more and more budget cuts and a glut of Phds on the market, TT jobs are rarer than ever before. Landing one is luck, more or less. Do I regret it? Not at all.

That being said, I'll tell you what my advisor told me. You only have 1 life and you have to think about what you value in it and pursue those things. If you can get full funding from a program, can make peace with the fact that you most likely will not land a TT job, and determine that it is something you'd regret NOT doing, then there is no reason not to do so. I wouldn't do it if you don't get full funding. The degree isn't worth going into debt over due to the job prospects.

My only other advice is that if you do start one, don't be afraid to explore any and all opportunities during the program, even if it means it takes you another year or two to finish the dissertation. Those opportunities will help you build skills and experience that will be an asset in job hunting outside academia should a TT job not work out.