There are enough gaps that it isn’t entirely implausible that someone called Moses could exist and have played some sort of important role in the early history of people who would eventually become Jews, and some of the plagues have plausible natural causes, but the overall tale of the exodus doesn’t add up chronologically or politically .

Judaism appears to have evolved from one of the many cults or priestly orders devoted to one god among many and even by the time they emerged as a distinct people they weren’t monotheists. Among those groups circumcision was not unknown but its popularity varied. That early group must have had a founder, principal functional priest, and so on, so if the early figures of the Jewish people were identified some of them could be pointed out as the people who contributed parts of the scriptural characters of Moses, Aaron, Joshua, the judges, and so on. In other words, he was probably more real than King Arthur, but less real than King Alfred, or even King David.