Was there any effort to specifically avoid armed conflict with the United States, or was it seen as inevitable (the better to bring them in on Axis terms rather than wait until America was ready)? Given the state of the American military at the outset relative to Germany and Japan, was the US's industrial capacity and resolve simply underestimated (Americans were lazy, rich, far-away, distracted)? A lot of depictions and descriptions of the early war seem to treat an Allied victory almost as a foregone conclusion after Pearl Harbor (Midway at the latest) in the eyes of all but Hitler and Hirohito themselves (Yamamoto's "sleeping giant" quote gets trotted out a lot; despite questions of authenticity, it's a good example of what I'm talking about).
Basically, there seems to be a lot of hindsight involved in portraying Axis attitudes early on, even in documentaries and other non-fictional sources, and I'm wondering what their opinions really were.
The way the Germans saw the US or at least how Hitler saw the US was frightening but manageable. Hitler in his second book following Mein Kampf talked about his thoughts on the US. He says the US is a big threat with its abundance of natural resources, manpower, and industrial output. He acknowledged that they would be a threat later on and would be an enemy at one point. However he thought the US would be internally focused on itself before worrying about Europe. Hitler thought he could tame Europe and Russia by the time America was ready to declare war and fight. By December 1941, the Germans were in deep in Russia with no end in sight and they thought they needed more to take Moscow and end the war. Japan then attacked Pearl Harbor on December 7th, this took the US and Germans completely by surprise.
Contrary to popular believe Hitler was not mad about the Japanese attacking Pearl Harbor. He was actually quite impressed the Japanese would even attempt such an operation and provoke the US. Looking to gather Japanese support in the war in Russia, he declared war on the US. This was in hopes the Japanese could help distract the Russians and the US while the Germans secured Moscow and much of the resource rich areas in Russia. While this was an overestimation of the Japanese’s capabilities, Japan seemed capable at the time. But by this time the Japanese and Russians had neutrality pact after the undeclared border conflict between the Japanese and Russians. The Japanese army was utterly humiliated by the Russians, they understood they stood no chance against the Russians on the ground at least and chose not to fight them. The only time Japan would even declare war on Russia during Barbarossa and Typhoon was if Russia was in complete chaos. Not even at the height of both campaigns did this ever happen. And Japan also had it’s own problems to deal with.
Japan was also aware of the US power and it’s hold on the Japanese’s war machine. Japan may look down on the West and thought they didn’t give them much respect, it did know the power they held. When Japan attacked the US, it was not out of a lack of respect for their enemy or underestimating the American’s fighting ability, it was out of necessity. Much of the raw materials used for war like steel, iron, copper, rubber and oil were imported to Japan. They relied heavily on these products and the West knew this. In summer of 1940 the US, UK, and Dutch cut off almost all trade to the Japanese. This was in protest of the Japanese expansion into China and the annexation of French Indochina. While regular crude oil was not cut off initially, by the summer of next year it was cut off. This was completely devastating for the Japanese who relied almost completely on the US for oil and without oil the Japanese fleet and army could not move. They now had to either keep on with it’s war with China and risk running out of fuel or give into the West demands and pull back out of China and Manchuria. Both would mean ruin for the Empire, but soon the Japanese high command would plan it’s southern expansion. With the seizing of the Dutch and British colonies, the Japanese would have enough resources to feed it’s empire. However the US was still a problem and would attack if the Japanese moved to the South. The Japanese knew it had to destroy US Pacific fleet before it attempts it’s movement south. The Japanese hoped to catch the Americans off guard, sink as much of their fleet as possible, and secure the resource rich South and establish control. There wasn’t much about ending the war with the US. They hoped they could either force a giant decisive victory or hope US public opinion would sour for the war and force a peace. But it had no plan to stop the US industry or a large invasion of the US. This required resources the Japanese just didn’t have and wouldn’t never have. Japanese may have struck first, but the US was still up and now getting it’s industry geared up for war.
Both the Japanese and Germans respected and feared the US’ wealth and industrial might. Both believed they could end the conflict quickly before the US could bring it down on them. This wasn’t the case for both countries and soon the US came into the war with everything it had.
Sources:
Hitler, A., & Attanasio, S. (2017). Hitlers secret book: zweites Buch: the unpublished sequel to Mein Kamph. Avebury: Black Kite Publishing.
Toland, J. W. (2003). The rising sun the decline and fall of the Japanese empire, 1936-1945. New York: Modern Library.
Slightly related: How did the Japanese high command's attitude toward the American warrior change after the battle of Wake Island?
I has to have been a very unpleasant and awakening experience.