Polling Data in California

by iiRacchy

Hello Historians!

I am a Junior in high school writing my term paper on voting polls for African Americans in California. After some decent searches on the internet, I was unable to find polling data from the 1932 election of how African Americans voted or at least what they registered as. I was wondering if someone can help me out. Thanks!

indyobserver

Unfortunately for your paper, what you're looking for doesn't really exist as the type of more detailed data that you're looking wasn't asked on a widespread basis until exit polls in the late 1960s.

What we consider polling didn't really begin until George Gallup came up with the idea to sell more reliable public surveys to the press in 1935 which then took off with the gift of the disaster of the Literary Digest 'poll' in 1936 which predicted that Al Landon would clobber FDR, rather than vice versa.

There are some polls of major East Coast and Midwest urban centers pre-1940, but California was considered electorally unimportant enough that neither campaigns nor news agencies were interested in doing so there.

Now if you get interested enough to keep studying this in university and have the ability to do primary source research, there are indeed ways to make some guesses as to registration and turnout by race or religion or gender, but they generally involve going through census data and extrapolating results from heavily segregated precincts. Even that has problems, which I'll let someone who went through this process explain:

"Such aggregate data can provide useful insights, but this approach is susceptible to the ‘‘ecological fallacy’’ of inferring individual behavior from aggregate data. The classic example of the danger of using aggregate data comes from the fact that Southern counties with a higher percentage of blacks gave a higher vote to States Rights presidential candidate Strom Thurmond in 1948. However, it would be fallacious to infer that blacks were voting for Thurmond, since blacks were not voting in the South at that time. Instead, votes for Thurmond were coming from white voters in counties with large black populations." (Weisberg, Reconsidering Jewish Presidential Voting Statistics, Cont Jewry (2012) 32:215–236)

So, the short answer is that a better approach for a term paper might be to figure out how to incorporate research done on California in general in the 1932 election as well as the experience of the African American population in it at the time (comparing it to the South with the poll tax and suppression and such, for instance, and regions within California where any African American elected officials might have been in local office), which perhaps your school librarian can help you with finding resources to assist you.

Best of luck!

AncientHistory

Hi - we as mods have approved this thread, because while this is a homework question, it is asking for clarification or resources, rather than the answer itself, which is fine according to our rules. This policy is further explained in this Rules Roundtable thread and this META Thread.

As a result, we'd also like to remind potential answerers to follow our rules on homework - please make sure that your answers focus appropriately on clarifications and detailing the resources that OP could be using.

Additionally, while users may be able to help you out with specifics relating to your question, we also have plenty of information on /r/AskHistorians on how to find and understand good sources in general. For instance, please check out our six-part series, "Finding and Understanding Sources", which has a wealth of information that may be useful for finding and understanding information for your essay.