This question is quite simple. How even was the Finnish civil war? Was a red victory possible or was white victory more or less guaranteed from the offset?
So I wrote my barchelors theses on an aspect of Finnish Civil war. For anonymitys sake I will not disclose the exact subject, since I am only one who has written anything publically available on the subject. I will first tell how the war went, then why whites were better at warfare, and third, how reds could have increased their changes.
Finnish civil war broke out in the end of the January 1918, when Reds started a revolution in Helsinki and whites started to disarm russian garrisons in Ostrobotnia simultaneously. Red side had initial advantage due to help from Russians in form of weapons and volunteers, and due to their easier mobilization. Reds controlled southern Finland with most of the railroads, allowing them to consentrate their forces faster.
Reds started an general offensive along the whole frontline that run from Pori to Savo and from there south through the Karelian Isthmus to Russian border at Rautu. Red guards did not consentrate forces on any specific direction. Attacks generally failed after some initial advance, and the only east west railway in the hands of the whites remained safe.
Whites conducted a counter offensive against Red central front at Tampere, with good force consentartion. White Karelian front had to manage with local troops until Tampere was taken. Simultaneously white Senate asked for German help , and German Ostseedivision made an amphibious assault against southern Finland, taking Helsinki.
After the loss of Helsinki and Tampere war was practically over. Rest of the fighting consisted of white and German forces preventing reds from escaping to Russia.
At the start of the civil war both sides were amateurs. Since there had not been conscriptipn in Finland, there was very few trained soldiers in the country. Having German trained Jaeger volunteers on their side gave whites a massive advantage in the training side. Most of the Finnish officers of imperial Russian army sided with whites also.
German intervention. 10 000 German veteran soldiers of Ostseedivision completely outclassed anything reds had. Apart from a hard fought battle at Syrjäntaka, German intervention was a complete curb stomp.
Leadership. Whites had an effective command structure on all levels. Red command did not work at any level. Highest prewar military rank among red leadership was 2nd leutenent, first commander in chief, Ali Aaltonen. He was cashiered due to drunkedness, and replaced with an amateur. Whites had General Mannerheim. Reds voted for company commanders, whites appointed trained Jaegers and imperial officers for those roles mostly. White troops fought loyaly, red troops mutinied, changed leaders and went on leave from frontline without permission.
Russian help could have turned the tide in the favour of reds. Most Russian troops in Finland left after the start of the war, and very few remained to help the red cause. Reds had to buy most of their weapons ftom St Petersburg, and only a part was military aid. German success in war against Russians forced Bolsheviks to accept the peace treaty of Brest Litovsk, which gave Finland into German sphere of influence. This ended overt Russian aid to reds.
Starting earlier could have won the day for reds. In desember the leadership of the red guards desided to start the revolution, but the desision was reversed a few hours later, before any action had been taken. At that time white guards had practically no weapons, Russian troops were much more numerous and Russian military situation against Germans was nowhere near as desperate. Additionally frozen Baltic would have prevented German intervention for a few months.