I would expect that the controversial stances of F.W de Klerk would have alienated many white voters who supported apartheid, and would assume the black majority as well as other minorities would have stuck with the ANC or other minor parties. How did the liberalizing National Party more than triple its vote count after alienating a large portion of its demographic base?
I would expect that the controversial stances of F.W de Klerk would have alienated many white voters who supported apartheid
A referendum on ending apartheid was held in South Africa on 17 March 1992. The referendum was limited to white South African voters, who were asked whether or not they supported the negotiated reforms begun by F. W. de Klerk, in which he proposed to end the apartheid system. The result of the referendum was a large victory for the "yes" side (1.9 million (68.7%) - For and 875,619 (31.3%) - Against).
and would assume the black majority as well as other minorities would have stuck with the ANC
How the ANC's vote was constituted:
African | 11.5 million |
---|---|
Coloured | 0.5 million |
Indian | 150,000 |
White | 50,000 |
Total | 12.2 million |
How the National Party's vote was constituted:
White | 1.9 million |
---|---|
Coloured | 1.2 million |
African | 0.5 million |
Indian | 0.3 million |
Total | 3.9 million |
The National Party had only limited success in convincing Africans that it had truly moved away from its whites-only past. Only around a quarter of Africans saw the party as multiracial at the close of the campaign. Not surprisingly, the National Party failed to capture many African votes. On the other hand, the National Party did achieve a considerable degree of success at altering its image in the coloured and Indian electorate. These voters by and large bought the party’s claims of transformation and a majority of them supported it, making the National Party the most diverse party in South Africa and giving it control over the Western Cape. The ANC had less success at image change with coloured and Indian voters, many of whom continued to view the ANC as an African-only party.
Source: The Politics of the New South Africa: Apartheid and After, Heather Deegan, 2001; Framing the Race in South Africa The Political Origins of Racial Census Elections, Karen E. Ferree, 2010.