While I'm not a historian, I'm a colossal nerd about the Haudenosaunee, and I've read a bunch about this specific issue. Let's see what I can do with this...

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In recent years, the argument is definitely leaning more towards the earlier date (1142, specifically), and there are a bunch of different reasons for doing so. To fully understand it, a few questions have to be answered: Why would the 5 tribes have banded together, what sort of archaeological and oral evidence could support / negate this, and what world events can help us tie the date down more specifically.

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For the first part, the European view of the formation of the Haudenosaunee was very much biased towards themselves: they believed that they joined together as a response to European colonization. And part of the evidence might have supported it. Archaeologists found large palisade fortifications in the region that date to right before their hypothetical times of formation in the 15th and 16th centuries (and why would you need to defend yourself if you're all friends). Likewise, part of the Haudenosaunee oral tradition mentions a cannibal snake cult, and the Europeans had a really hard time surviving in the New World, so maybe it was them? It also just sounds fitting, wanting to call the Europeans cannibals.

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So to dissect this, archaeologists have also found palisade fortifications dating all the way back to the late 11th century and the surrounding times. Additionally, the palisades were viewed in a very European sense of existing to defend against attackers, which isn't fully the case. I won't go too deep into it because I don't fully understand it, but part of Haudenosaunee tradition involves the connection between fallen warriors and trees. These palisades were placed next to corn fields, and it represents a male-female reciprocity fundamental to the peace brought by the confederacy. (this reciprocity idea is super cool, and I would definitely recommend looking more into it if you get the chance). Lastly, there definitely was a cannibal snake cult in the region, particularly among the Onondaga, one of the five original tribes. The cult arose as a backlash to the increase in agriculture, and it took its own forms among men and women. Again, another super cool concept I don't fully understand, tying in hunting and warfare as well as marriage and alliance in traditional belief. Without going too much more in to it, there was definitely still conflict among the five tribes after the confederacy formed, and these cannibals weren't European by any means.

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For the second part, I've already gone over a bit of the evidence used to claim the date at a later time, but one of the more important parts of all of this are the oral traditions from the Keepers. European civilization has long doubted the legitimacy of these traditions, which probably skewed what they thought of the origin date. Modern efforts are now appreciating these oral traditions more, and the oldest accounts of interactions with the confederacy correspond with modern Keepers in the age of the Haundenosaunee. There are certaintly differences between them on the specifics, as they know the chronology of their own family or neighbors than of other people, but they all give dates between the late 11th century and, on the extreme end, the late 14th century, all dates that are before European arrival. There are some Keepers who believe that it spans back even farther, going as far back as 2000 or 3000 years, but they are in the minority.

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For the third and last part, the origin of the confederacy also aligned with a solar eclipse. This eclipse was known to be visible at Gonondaga, a place in modern day Victor, New York. This is a really useful piece, as it can help us use fixed dates to corroborate oral and archaeological evidence. There are four dates in which a solar eclipse would have been near totality (>80%) at this place in our time frame: 1142, 1390, 1451, and 1536. Combined with other evidence, the latter dates are unlikely, That leaves 1142 and 1390 as our last candidates, and the majority of oral tradition and archaeological evidence suggest 1142 as the likely date.

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Therefore, the consensus is now growing that the Haundeonsaunee formed on August 31st, 1142. If you want to read more, there is an academic article, "A Sign in the Sky: Dating the League of the Haudenosaunee" that's a great place to start to read more about these things!