The eastern half of Germany, formerly belonging to the GDR, is on average poorer than the western parts of Germany. There's a wealth of literature relating to reasons within the 20th century, but I was curious about the effect of the Thirty Year's War.
It seems from my readings that the area between Saxony and Sweden - more or less modern eastern Germany - bore the brunt of the destruction. Frankfurt an der Oder and the town of Brandenburg lost more than two thirds of their population, Potsdam 40%, Wittenberge and Putlitz were abandoned. Not to mention Magdeburg, which was essentially completely destroyed and de-populated.
I'm aware that this was around 400 years ago, but the population levels in these areas generally reached pre-Thirty Year's War levels during the Industrial Revolution. Is there any literature drawing a concrete link between eastern Germany's weaker economic status today and the Thirty Year's War?
Helpful maps and tables comparing East and West German economic status today: https://www.bmwi.de/Redaktion/DE/Publikationen/Neue-Laender/jahresbericht-zum-stand-der-deutschen-einheit-2020.html
Numbers taken from Christopher Clark's Preußen, Aufstieg und Niedergang 1600–1947. (pp 58-59)
First, about the devastation of the Thirty Years' War, it is very hard to say true specifics with certainty. An enormous amount of literature has been published on the effects of the Thirty Years' War since the war began in 1618 (contemporary and modern). This has contributed to numerous historians in the 19th and 20th century citing the Thirty Years' War as the source of stagnation in the development of Germany. Currently, historians do not have actual numbers on the total devastation, loss of property, or loss of life. Every number given is an estimate and they all vary from about a 40% loss of population to 15%. It is also important to note that the loss of population in an area was often due to migration out of that territory as opposed to death. And in Brandenburg, some may have moved back during or shortly after the war, especially once Swedish troops left in 1654. However, it is true that the north-east, middle, and south-west lands suffered the most losses than elsewhere.
For those unfamiliar with the 30 Years' War, the reason for the loss and displacement of life was partly due the numerous battles in the area with Sweden's march south, but more importantly the occupation of large forces for long durations of time on civilian populations. This occupation heightened earlier problems of crop failures, bad harvests, spread of disease, not to mention the added weight of maintaining hungry, foreign, soldiers who were hardly paid on time (if at all). So it is agreed that eastern and south-west Germany suffered the most, but it is impossible to tie present conditions to the Thirty Years' War. As said by Joachim Whaley: "Another thing that makes assessment of the long-term effects of the Thirty Years War difficult is that within twenty years the Reich was plunged into another series of ruinous wars. It is true that the fighting in these later conflicts took place on the peripheries of the Reich, but the financial cost was, if anything, far greater." (Whaley, 636). And even later, Prussia's fighting in Saxony during the Seven Years' War caused further devastation in the region.
Is there any literature drawing a concrete link? Yes, but not by recent historians. Such a link would be nearly impossible to substantiate with sources and maintain credibility. The reason is that numerous German historians of the 19th and early 20th centuries made nationalistic stories about Germany rising from devastation through the phoenix of Prussia on its special path to unify German lands together! This view has been thoroughly dismantled ever since. In addition, it is almost impossible to make claims about whole regions instead of individual towns, villages, or communities. Migrations, negotiations of new contracts between serfs/peasants and their lords, and local and regional policies, all created different independent yet related factors that determined different paths of restoration for each community of each polity following the war. For some there are records, for many others, there is nothing that remains.
But a concrete link would be impossible to determine, as it would require a claim like: Magdeburg was devastated in the 30 Years' War. Due to this devastation it lagged behind during the Great Northern War, the War of Austrian Succession, the Seven Years' War, the Napoleonic Wars, the German Unification Wars, World War I, World War II, and Soviet East Germany. The 30 Years' War was more significant in Magdeburg's lagging economy to today than any of these other events. This is just an example, but I hope it illustrates how untenable such an argument would be. In this example, you would have to justify that Magdeburg was lagging behind this whole time, and if not, how it would lag behind in the 1900s and 2000s after recovering in the 1800s (or 17/1900s).
However! There are links to lasting effects of the Thirty Years' War on local populations, just not necessarily (concretely) to the present! If you are interested, here are some texts I recommend reading:
- Maren Lorenz, Das Rad der Gewalt: Militär und Zivilbevölkerung in Norddeutschland nach dem Dreißigjährigen Krieg (1650 - 1700), (Köln: Böhlau Verlag GmbH, 2007).
If you want the nitty-gritty of military occupation in Brandenburg and Pomerania, this is the book for you. Maren Lorenz provides a brilliant examination on how garrisons affect local populations. She also questions when wars actually "end," as for many people in Brandenburg, the Swedes did not depart for 6 years after peace was signed!
- William W. Hagen, Ordinary Prussians: Brandenburg Junkers and Villagers, 1500 - 1840 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2002).
If you want a really good book (in English) about the specifics of rural community development during and after the Thirty Years' War in Brandenburg, this is excellent.
- Joachim Whaley, Das Heilige Römische Reich deutscher Nation und seine Territorien, Volume 1, translated by Michael Haupt (Philipp von Zabern, 2014).
This is the best book about the Holy Roman Empire in my opinion. It is detailed, addresses historiography, and relentlessly comprehensive. It covers 1493 - 1648, and there's a second volume from 1648 to 1806 if you are interested.
Source:
Whaley, Joachim. Germany and the Holy Roman Empire: Volume 1 (Oxford History of Early Modern Europe).