Alas we simply do not know.

The sheer horror of the Tudor war in Ireland (especially in the period after Essex was recalled) is a tale unto itself and I could go into great detail as to how it became so bad. And while we could talk about the broad overview of the four hundred years or so between the arrival of the Norman/Flemish upon Irish shores and the war that Elizabeth found herself in, I would rather focus on a much more profound question.

How could we judge the demographics of Ireland when the Norman/English invasion took place?

The issue lies in the fact that while by the Tudor period one could, with a degree of surety, identify Irish demographics along the lines of Gaelic speakers, Anglo-Irish (Old English nobility) etc, such titles are, for me, utterly unsuitable to use around the 12th century.

To be specific- the East coast of Ireland at the time makes such distinctions practically impossible. Simply put, one must be incredibly cautious about using terms such as ‘Irish’ during the time period in question when discussing the demographics of the coastal regions around this body of water.

The Irish Sea around the 12th Century was a bewildering variety of Kingdoms, regions, tribes and ethnicities, all of whom were seeking to create stable nations, all of whom had borders that waxed and waned with the passing of the years and all of whom saw populations able to merge and blend in with one another (mostly on a small personal scale but on occasion in large numbers).

We use titles like Ireland or England or Scotland to help US navigate this time period. At the time however people would have used other geopolitical titles- Leinster, Munster, Cinn Tire (Kintyre); Argyll; Tír Eoghain (Tyrone); Galloway; Arainn (Arran); Connacht; Mann; Duiblinn (Dublin); Skye; Rìoghachd nan Eilean (the Kingdom of the Isles) Gwynedd, Alba, Pembroke and many, many more.

Cambro-Norman’s, Saxons, Scots, Irish, Norse-Irish, Welsh, Norwegian, Danish, Norse-Gael, Anglo-Norman’s and other tribes mingled, intermarried, fought and killed one another along the waterway.

It is a chaotic era, where the only true power was control of the sea. Then, as now, maritime power was indicative of true geopolitical power, and this had been the situation for a century or more; these micro-nations waged constant sea based warfare upon one another, and the closest ‘super power’ was the distant Kings of Norway, who could supply the only external navy able to match the smorgasbord of competing nations.

Since the fall of the Saxon kingdom to the Norman’s for example, the English realm had no fleet. And as such was unable to project their will one inch into this territory. Only a few Cambro-Norman marcher Lords around Pembroke has ships able to counter this dominance of the sea, which they had learned literally from marrying into Welsh families.

Thus while it is easy to look at the arrival of the Normans in Ireland and assume it was one nation invading another, look to those involved. The original ‘English’ invaders had been Norman with Welsh heritage; Richard De Clare has sought to legitimise his claim upon Waterford and Wexford (the original ‘price’ offered for their services by King Diarmait Mac Murchada), by marrying Dairmait’s daughter.

It wasn’t going to be an invasion by foreigners if all went to plan. Dairmait was to be restored to High King and the two ports were to be given to his son in law and his friends.

It was only after Dairmait died and the Cambro-Norman’s were besieged in Dublin that De Clare used the marriage to claim the title of High King- not with the hope of actually gaining it, but in the hope he could negotiate it away in return for the ports.

And in these latter stages of this small messy invasion we also see how confusing things are for us to be able to speak with certainty about the demographics of Ireland.

So, unable to maintain a siege around Dublin without a sea fleet, (and the Norse-Irish Dublin fleet having escaped the arrival of the Cambro-Norman’s, before an ill advised attempt to retake the town had seen it destroyed), the Irish high King had called upon the services of Guðrøðr Óláfsson, (Godfred Olafsun) King of the Isles and Mann, to supply the ships to blockade Dublin port while the Irish besieged the city.

Guðrøðr is a perfect illustration of the confusing demographics of the region and the era. He is presented as a Norse warlord who was born and raised on Mann and gave homage (nominally) to the Kings of Norway. And yet- his mother was from Galloway, and indeed Mann had been settled by a substantial number of Gallowayians during the reign of his father Olaf who had married the daughter of Fergus of Galloway and HIS wife, who was supposedly a bastard daughter of Henry I of England.

Godfred’s grandfather had been of Norse-Irish stock, one of the few survivors of the sizeable Irish contingent (or Irish and Norse-Irish) who had joined Harold Hadrada in his attempt to usurp the throne of England from Harold Godwinsun; the defeat at Stamford Bridge had seen Godfred’s grandfather survive and settle on Mann as many in Dublin had supported Godwinsun and it was unsafe for him back there.

He had eventually taken the throne of Mann, and Godfred was the latest of his dynasty (the Crovans) to hold the title.

His extended family included cousins who had settled in Ulster after his father took the throne (before returning and murdering King Olaf and usurping the title of Mann from teenage Godfred- who sailed to Norway, raised an army and retook his lands); his brother in law was the Norse-Gael adventurer Somerled, who had risen to become King of Kintyre, and who used his link to his wife to topple Godfred from his throne a second time, sending him into exile. (He reclaimed the title years later after various misadventures across Europe).

Godfreds wife was Findguala Nic Lochlainn, the grand daughter of the King of Crnél nEógain, one Muirchertach Mac Lochlainn; some years previously he had decided to fight for the title of High King of Ireland against the then holder of it, one Toirrdelbach Ua Conchibair, King of Connacht. Muirchertach had needed to hire a mercenary fleet to combat Toirrdrlbach’s formidable one, and recruited one made up of mercenary Scots, Norse and Norse-Gael from the region including both Godfred and Somerled (this being a few years before Somerled betrayed Godfred).

Afterwards, with Muirchertach having won, the Norse residents of Dublin had invited Godfred to become King of Dublin (since they preferred a Norse to rule them), which he had accepted and his former employer Muirchertach somewhat annoyed at this turn of events, had sent an army to remove him. This was beaten off and King Muirchertach then sent his ally Diarmait Mac Murchada, designated King of Leinster at the time, to remove him. Dairmait inflicted a scorched earth policy upon the Dubliners and they agree to submit to him; and Godfred was basically offered the hand in marriage of the High King’s grand daughter to pay him off.

This is why when Godfred’s fleet appeared off the coast of Dublin to blockade the Cambro-Norman’s led by the son in law of Diarmait Mac Murchada, (the man who had kicked Godfred out of Dublin) it was to aid the army of the man whose father had been high King, before Godfred had helped destroy his fleet; the man helping King Ruaidhrí Ó Conchobhair kick out these invaders was aligned by marriage to the man who had toppled Toirrdelbach Ua Conchibair.

It makes one realise that before gathering demographic information one has to ask- what exactly do you mean by ‘Irish’? Godfred wasn’t Irish but he was part of the extended lines of relationships that transcended easy definition. So was (by marriage anyway) Richard De Clare.

Godfred exists as an example of the complicated interplay between peoples on the Irish Sea during the period. And indeed it actually gets worse. (Continued in comment below)