"Could" is a bit of a tricky word here, because technically, sure, anything is possible. But to rephrase it as "is the Biblical flood myth based on the extinction of hominids/the Black Sea flooding/the Toba Eruption/what have you and idea with strong support we can consider seriously" then the answer is no. In part this is an issue of time scales--the last non sapiens hominids anywhere in the world probably died out somewhere in the range of 40-30,000 years ago, and by that point were exceptionally limited in their range--a small corner of Spain, an island in Indonesia, etc. Obviously the chronology and geography of this will be moved around as more discoveries surface, but it is extremely unlikely that we will widespread non sapiens hominids much later.

But a more compelling argument is that there actually is already a pretty good explanation for what the Biblical flood story is "based on". In the nineteenth century, the excavation and translation of Mesopotamian texts led to, among other things, the rediscovery of the Epic of Gilgamesh, which contains a section in which contains a section in which the gods become angry at human kinds, and thus cause a great flood of the rivers to wipe them out. The god Enki, however, told the plan to a human named Utnapishtim, and instructed him to build a large boat filled with people and the beasts and animals of the field. Th floods came and covered the world, and only Mt Nimrud was above it. When the storms stopped, Utnapishtim released doves etc you can see where I am going with this.

We do not need to go with the farthest possible interpretation (something like "Judean priests taken to Babylon learn of the Epic of Gilgamesh and insert their own spin on it when compiling the tanakh") to see the parallels, and to say that the flood story presented Genesis is a version of a popular Mesopotamian flood story. And here is where archaeology and geography come into play, because the rivers of Mesopotamia were prone to flooding, and signs of this flooding are commonly seen in the excavation of the cities (this can be seen in the layers of soil deposited on a site--if you are excavating a city and come to a layer of soil that is characteristic of rivers depositions, odds are you have a flood). The takeaway is that flooding was, if not a daily occurance, certainly a feature of Mesopotamian civilization, and so mythology reflects that.

This does not mean that the story is "based on" a particular flood, as if Gilgamesh was a Hollywood movie based on a true story, rather that mythology speaks to the worldviews and experiences of people telling them. You do not need a specific historical Persephone and Hades in order to have a story that reflects the experience of the changing of seasons.

If you are curious about this, there is a recent book The Ark Before Noah: Decoding the Story of the Flood by Irving Finkel. I have not read all of it, but from what I have read it is pretty readable, and it goes into a lot of interesting aspects of the story I did not mention here (like what we can learn from all the variants of the story, eg some of them go into a lot of detail on the exact specifications of the ship.