I was reading "Nahua Thought and the Conquest" and came across the following passage:
The episode ended with another extraordinary event, when Moctezuma gave the translatio imperii; with another speech he handed over his empire to the king of Spain, again alluding to the same Toltec account as when he received Cortez in Tenochtitlan.
Further on the paper alleges that there's good reason to think the account of this is accurate, and that it's probable he thought Charles V was in fact the legitimate ruler based on old legends of a returning lord.
This is in The Oxford Handbook of the Aztecs, and it's fairly recent scholarship. But it still seems odd to me to think that it's actually accurate. What does the debate around this claim look like, if it is debated?
And if not, why would Montezuma be so sure that these people were the prophesized people that he'd turn over his throne to someone who's agents, as I understand, had already committed atrocities against his subjects? It seems incautious, at the very least.
He almost certainly did not hand over his throne. Consider where this claim comes from: Cortes. Now, I don't think it would be controversial to suggest that Cortes may have had something of an agenda. He could not simply attack and take over the Mexica Empire. Motecuhzma, although a 'pagan', was still of noble blood and the legitimate ruler, and killing him and taking over a sovereign people would have been highly illegal, or at least morally indefensible, and therefore would have opened him up to legal attacks from other Spaniards. Also, keep in mind that Cortes may not have intended to actually conquer the Mexica. Instead, his goal was to deceive the King of Spain into granting him the governorship of Veracruz. To do this, he needed to show that he was both in charge of the situation, and worth investing support in. Claiming he had secured this great new Empire for the Spanish Crown helped accomplish both. Cortes's real plan with the Mexica may have actually been to seek refuge with them should the king refuse to grant his patronage. When Narvaez arrived his plans were thrown into chaos, as Cortes found out that Motecuhzoma already knew about the landings. This was a problem because it meant that Motecuhzoma had the capability of gaining information about Spanish political movements independently of Cortes, denying the Conquistador any opportunity to prepare, deceive, or put his own spin on events. Motecuhzoma's subsequent arrest was therefore the result of a desperate gamble, one which almost resulted in the complete destruction of the Spanish expedition. At least that is my interpretation.
However, it is possible that Motecuhzoma did say something that may have sounded like an offer of the throne, but was misunderstood. Consider the chain of translation. Cortes got his information from Jeronimo de Aguilar, who heard everything from Malinalli, who was listening to Motecuhzoma, who spoke a different dialect of Nahuatl from Malinalli. It is more than likely that some of the meaning was lost. Motecuhzoma's 'offer' may have been a polite way of inviting Cortes to reside with him, which the Spanish misunderstood. Or, he may have been using the gesture to show off his generosity. Or, he may have really been asking the Spanish to serve under his throne. In other words, he made them vassals. Not that these options are mutually exclusive! In general, Spanish and Mexica relations seem to bear this out. The Mexica were known to keep representatives from conquered people within the Imperial palace and in the Huey Tlatoani's entourage. The Spanish basically fell into this pattern. This also kept the Spanish out of the hands of rival powers who might use the Spanish for their own ends. Motecuhzoma's ultimate goal is unknown. However, I would speculate that he wanted to make the Spanish settlement at Veracruz into a tributary town, as well as a trading post to the rest of the Spanish Empire, which he could control. Dominance over this trade route would allow the Mexica to control the flow of Spanish made prestige goods which Motecuhzoma could dole out to his underlings and allies, as well as incorporate Spanish technology and knowledge into the Empire at its core.
A lot of this is my own research drawn from both primary and secondary accounts of the Spanish Conquest. However, if you want to see a historical text that presents some of the most modern and critical analysis of the Spanish Conquest I would recommend, 'When Moctezuma met Cortes,' by Matthew Restall. I don't agree with everything he alleges. Nevertheless, his text is the most comprehensive and well researched challenge to the traditional narrative of the Conquest, and a huge inspiration for my own conclusions.