I realize that especially the second part of the question moves a bit into conspiracy theory, if that's not acceptable for this sub, please feel free to remove this question or tell me to remove it.
I was reading up some on the Velvet Revolution of 1989 in Czechoslovakia on Wikipedia (yeah, I know..) and two bits caught my attention (emphasis mine):
(19th November) Members of a civic initiative met with the Prime Minister, who told them he was twice prohibited from resigning his post and that change requires mass demonstrations like those in East Germany (some 250,000 students). He asked them to keep the number of "casualties" during the expected change to a minimum.
Now this really sounds like he is already accepting that the Civic Forum will prevail and even trying to facilitate an orderly transition himself. And this is on 19th November, only 2 days after the students' demonstration was attacked by the riot police. Still on the 23rd the military was said to inform the regime of "of its readiness to act".
Later on, the Wikipedia article even says (this is the conspiracy part):
Some, including highly regarded KGB defector Anatoliy Golitsyn and Czech dissident Petr Cibulka, claim the revolution was a plot by the KGB and related groups and political figures. According to such critics, the KGB instigated and used the revolution both to expand its power and to move Czech society away from Communist rule in a controlled manner that preserved KGB control over it.[citation needed]
Now, I understand that Petr Cibulka is considered to be a fringe figure today, but still.
So what I'm wondering is:
Thank you!
As a participant of the Velvet Revolution, the fall of the regime was inevitable. I have participated in the demonstrations in 1988 and 1989. Nobody expected the November to be a trigger because significant demonstrations were planned on December and January 1990. What really speed up the disintegration of the system, was collapsing economy, the fall of the Berlin Wall, and disunity of the communist party.
The Czechoslovak leadership made a bet that Gorbachev would fall and they could avoid reforms. They expected a coup within the USSR that would restore the Stalinist system. The old timers toyed with the idea that Stalinism was the best outcome for the crisis. It started with veneration of the Czechoslovak Stalinist Gottwald despite it was abandoned in 1963. After some easing in 1986-1988, 1989 was a reversal from the reforms. Travel was again restricted including to the Soviet Union. The Russian press was deemed counter-revolutionary and there was a ban on ordering publications. The Czechoslovak communists choose more reactionary, conservative, and semiliterate apparatchiks like Jakes as their leader. This move caused the communist party to lose unity and many younger members disobeyed the leadership.
Stalinists could only use various tools of oppressions to remain in power. The Czechoslovak conservatives even came with an idea to use army to seize the control of the state by a coup. The idea came from the chief of the army Milan Vaclavik who wanted to use tanks and air force to occupy Prague. The Soviet leadership abandoned the Czechoslovak communist system because it was political burden. They were also horrified with idea of a ‘civil war’ and made it clear that they will get involved if Czechoslovak conservatives would use armed forces against its population or its reformists. There was planned meeting between USA and USSR in December of 1989 and Soviets leaders did not want any trouble from its satellites. Conservatives run as well into disloyalty within the chain of command. That episode was covered in article, Tanks against Prague’ where armored divisions suppose to take over the government before the Soviets could react. That was miscalculation because military snitched the plans to Soviets (they always asked Soviets first for their opinion). This only increased the pressure against the Czechoslovak hardliners. That was also a foundation for the myths that the Velvet Revolution was planned. As a participant, it was just not avoidable and nobody could predict masses of generally passive population totally oblivious to its fate, to rebel.
What Soviets and reform-minded communists missed, was a total rejection of the Soviet system. Gorbachev underestimated the anti-Soviet and anti-Russian feeling within Czechoslovakia. During and shortly after the Revolution, many leftists, Soviets, and reformists, thought that Czechoslovakia would return into Dubcek’s socialism and recalled many 1968 reformists into a new government. But people in Czech part were not interested in returning to the system of the Prague Spring but into European structures. The 68 leaders were unable to stage a significant comeback and Dubcek was rather seen negatively in 1990 (there is no single street or public building in Czechia having his name). Velvet revolution was indeed spontaneous where the role of Soviets and the disintegration of the communist party due its own incompetence, could not be ignored.