I was listening to an episode of the BBC Radio 4 show "In Our Time," and I heard this from James Davey, a lecturer on naval and maritime history. He's comparing the reaction to the victory from the British public (sorrow over Nelson's death, displays of patriotism) with the government's (cynicism), and he says this:
"I think the (British) government knows full well that Trafalgar has done very little to shape the course of the war. As reports come back, as Vice-Admiral Collingwood's dispatches arrive, it's pretty clear that whilst Britain has captured and sunk a number of enemy ships, a lot have escaped. And of course the admiralty and the British government would have known that there were plenty of other French fleets stationed around Europe."
This surprised me, as it contradicts my own conception of Trafalgar as a major turning point not only in the Napoleonic Wars, but also in world history. Is my impression the result of a successful British propaganda campaign around Trafalgar? Was it really not that materially consequential?
This is an old chestnut that gets brought up from time to time, to which there are several non-competing answers (that is, there are multiple answers to it that are not mutually exclusive).
Indeed, it was, at sea. The defeat of the allied (Franco-Spanish) fleet ended the real threat of an invasion of Britain, although France and its allies had attempted to invade Britain many times in the 18th century, usually leading to disaster. (Amphibious operations are actually really hard.) Although Napoleon and his allies had at their command most of the forests of Europe, they did not have the naval infrastructure that Britain commanded to actually build ships with seasoned timber, add to them useful warrant and commissioned officers, man them with adequate, uh, manpower, and so forth. Although there were certainly capital ships at Napoleon's command, they were for the most part bottled up in port or, if they cruised, unable to make major inroads on Britain's fleet.
It was not, on land. It's a truism of war that "boots on the ground" are the only thing that can occupy land, and though naval expeditions can make a big difference in the timing of warfare -- one only has to look at Drake's raids on Cadiz and the Iberian coast in 1587 to see this as a factor -- naval warfare alone rarely forces the issue in a war. (It's a fairly debated question whether the naval blockade of Japan, the bombing raids on the Home Islands, the atomic bomb, or the invasion of Manchuria by the Soviet Union caused Japan to surrender in WWII - it's very likely a "both and" scenario.) The analogy of the elephant versus the whale is apt; how would the two actually fight?