I have noticed a trend, especially among Russian historians, of calling the medieval Lithuanian state a Lithuanian-Russian successor state to Kievan Rus. Reasons given for this include that much of the territory (3/4 by some counts) was peopled by Russian speakers. I am currently reading Riasanovsky, and he is particularly keen on this description. He does, however, acknowledge that in later medieval times there was heavy Polonisation in Lithuania.
Does this argument hold water? Would you describe Lithuania as Russian in any meaningful sense, or as a successor state to Kievan Rus?
It is a multifaceted question and without an easy answer. The Grand Duchy of Lithuania was a multinational state which encompassed much of the former Kievan Rus and left an unquestionably massive legacy onto the region, so it is understandable that its legacy can be interpreted in different ways. In Russia, there was a sort of revival of the memory of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania in the 19th century, during which the idea of "Lithuanian-Russian" Lithuania, or "Lithuanian Rus" (Литовская Русь) were first formulated, and were firmly established in Russian academia by 1896, when the "Lithuanian-Russian State" was included into the Brockhaus and Efron Encyclopedic Dictionary (see here). The context of the 19th century helped this interpretation of Lithuanian history to form. Prior to 1795, there was a clear and sharp distinction drawn between "Lithuanian" and "Moscovite" Rus', as these two nations were long standing enemies and regional rivals, but in 1795, Lithuania was abolished alongside the rest of the Polish-Lithuanian republic and its territory was annexed by Russia. The concept that prior to the Polish-Lithuanian union, Lithuania was a nation jointly created by Lithuanians and East Slavs and that Lithuania was thus an East Slavic state which was merely separated from its brethren in Moscow by Polish influence was thus a way to legitimize the annexation of modern day Lithuania, Belarus and Ukraine.
On the other hand, Lithuania is, to this day, an important source of national identity for the modern Belarusian and Ukrainian nations, and the means via which both of them seek to draw their distinction from Russia. The campaign by Grand Duke Algirdas against the Golden Horde in 1361-1363, culminating in the Battle of Blue Waters, is seen as the liberation of Kiev from the Mongol yoke, the Grand Dukes of Lithuania are seen as equally Belarusian/Ukrainian as they were Lithuanian, receive memorials and monuments across both nations (for example, Lutsk, the last residence of Vytautas and the place where he was expected to be coronated in 1430, has a memorial of the Vytis on the walls of the Lutsk Castle and the restaurant "Korona Vitovta", Vitebsk has recently erected a statue for Grand Duke Algirdas, etc.).
How founded is it in reality? It cannot be denied that the Grand Duchy of Lithuania was very, very closely connected to Ruthenian culture and for hundreds of years, the history of Belarus and Ukraine was the history of Lithuania, and there are plenty of arguments to make that Lithuania was equally built by the Slavs as it was by the Lithuanians:
In Lithuania, which I am personally more familiar with, medieval Lithuania is seen as primarily a Lithuanian state. The situation in Lithuanian historiography has gone to the better since independence, as past interpretation of it being solely Lithuanian, with Ruthenians and other peoples as merely conquered peoples, has been mostly abandoned in favor of a pluralistic approach where the contribution of East Slavic culture, political thought, legal systems, institutions and religion into medieval Lithuania is recognized and it is accepted that the Ruthenians saw Lithuania as theirs, though it is still emphasized that Lithuania was a Lithuanian state: