So, I just watched a documentary based on the book "Princes of the Yen" and it argues with many quotes from Japanese higher ups that the "window guidance" was the critical force behind Japanese economic "miracle", in which the Bank of Japan gives quotas to banks how much they should lend and to what companies under low interest rates. The Japanese officials of the time dressed this under technical jargon and pretended it was all free-market as revealing the truth would have been politically troubling.
Then, Japanese bankers educated in the US under free-market principles came back to Japan and judged that the "window-guidance" was a break from free-market and is a crisis waiting to happen. So, they needed to reform it, but they argued no fundamental reforms can be undertaken without crisis. So they decided to pump up the window guidance to extreme to create a bubble. They kept pumping it and when it started bursting, they avoided doing actions which would've solved the crisis.
How widely accepted is this?
How widely accepted is this?
Tl;dr This is not accepted or at least the main thesis. Werner appears to be reinterpreting history (badly) as a conspiracy based on flimsy evidence. As far as smoking gun confession (which he thinks he has, but not at all), all the evidence shows that this was very unlikely. It would be like saying that currently (Aug 2022) the Federal Reserve and all other central banks induced inflation to produce a recession and not taking into account Covid, war in Ukraine, and the supply shocks.
So a few things about Richard Werner. He is an academic or was one. He was a visiting researcher at the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in the early 1990s. He wrote Princes likely toward the end of the 1990s or early 2000s as it was released in 2002/3 (his Wikipedia seems suspect because his publisher says 2003). During the mid 1990s he was an economist for a private investment firm. So this might be critical for understanding his motives.
There are only three criticical reviews of Princes (book) that I could find and they were not positive: Smitka 2005, Farber 2004, and Myung 2004. The criticism overlapped in that Werner presents flimsy evidence, not accurate history, and faulty economic theory presented as facts. Ferber (2004) writes that it seemed way too personal. The book was meant for a wide audience as Werner meant to be clear, but also academic. He ends up being muddled and seemingly creating a narrative. I found many either inaccuracies, poorly contextualized facts, or many omissions that appear to be embellishing in service of a narrative. By the time Werner published Princes many studies were already part of the mainstream about window guidance and monetary policy, which Werner does not seem to employ correctly or dismisses. In addition many of his sources seem to be misinterpreted or misused. Some of news articles aren’t identified, which makes it hard to tell if he used them correctly, but based upon the context he appears to be putting words in people’s mouths as they were talking about different things. So Werner sounds more like a conspiracy theorist than an objective scholar. There are many questionable are in the book and if I had to estimate, it would be at least 30 questionable areas. Some examples:
Some other criticisms to mention. The book is very poorly edited. It reads more like a bad spy novel. I find that Werner keeps repeating himself and then slightly different details each time he repeats himself. He poses questions and rambles for a while, and then randomly at times returns to answer the question like it was obvious. So he plays tricks as he accuses the princes of unclear jargon and hiding, but he might be throwing rocks from his own glass house.
About the documentary. Werner’s book is very creative at bending facts in rather artful ways, but the documentary is not subtle. In fact, I think the opening line should be taken very seriously: ‘based on the book: Princes of the Yen’. So the book is rather dubious, then documentary is even more dubious. I would parallel it to The Last Samurai is based actual history, but has a lot of creative liberties that it is mostly loosely just fiction based in history. So there are many things that were not mentioned in the book and were likely made up as a narrative. One example is “non-GDP based loans”. The documentary gives a definition, but this is not a real term and at face value makes no sense. All internet searches lead to writings about the documentary. No investment or economics dictionary has the term.
So, I just watched a documentary based on the book "Princes of the Yen" and it argues with many quotes from Japanese higher ups that the "window guidance" was the critical force behind Japanese economic "miracle", in which the Bank of Japan gives quotas to banks how much they should lend and to what companies under low interest rates.
So “window guidance” (窓口指導 madoguchi shidō) is not really what it seems as described here, and I’ll explain later what it means. Just iterating the definition, while “guidance” can imply “control”, it would preferable because banks flouted “guidance” in various ways. More later.