It is once again my painful duty to report that Churchill did not actually say this. Like many such "quotations" of Churchill, it is a misquote! There is no evidence that he said this to Neville Chamberlain, but there are two occasions where he did say something similar, though not to Chamberlain, but both surrounding the Munich Conference and Chamberlain's role in the dismemberment of Czechoslovakia.
As the crisis in the Sudetenland brewed, Churchill wrote to David Lloyd George on 13 August 1938:
I think we shall have to choose in the next few weeks between war and shame, and I have very little doubt what the decision will be.
The second was to Lord Moyne on 11 September:
We seem to be very near the bleak choice between War and Shame. My feeling is that we shall choose Shame, and then have War thrown in a little later on even more adverse terms than at present.
When Chamberlain returned to Britain on 30 September with his piece of paper declaring peace for our time, the Munich Agreement was to be debated in the House of Commons for four days. Churchill spoke on 5 October, the third day of the debate, and while he did not say this exact quote, none could doubt that that was exactly what he meant. Andrew Roberts described this as "the greatest speech of his life thus far":
He and his Party had long parted ways; friends like Jack Mottistone, Ian Hamilton, the Duke of Windsor, Charles Londonderry, Bendor Westminster and David Lloyd George had all praised appeasement, and some even the Fuhrer himself. Churchill had not held office for nine years and had been passed over for it on four occasions, and he was speaking to a House that was about to vote in favour of the Munich Agreement by 366 to 144. Yet still he produced something sublime.
Churchill declared that, "we have sustained a total and unmitigated defeat, and that France has suffered even more than we have." In summarising the compromises offered to Hitler, he said, "£1 was demanded at the pistol's point. When it was given, £2 were demanded at the pistol's point. Finally, the dictator consented to take £1 17s. 6d. [that is, 93.75% of £2 in pre-decimal currency] and the rest in promises of goodwill for the future." Of Czechoslovakia, he said:
All is over. Silent, mournful, abandoned, broke, Czechoslovakia recedes into the darkness. She has suffered in every respect by her association with the Western democracies and with the League of Nations, of which she has always been an obedient servant... It must now be accepted that all the countries of Central and Eastern Europe will make the best terms they can with the triumphant Nazi Power. The system of alliances in Central Europe upon which France has relied for her safety has been swept away, and I can see no means by which they can be reconstituted.
He concluded with an ominous warning:
And do not suppose that this is the end. This is only the beginning of the reckoning. This is only the first sip, the first foretaste of a bitter cup which will be proffered to us year by year unless by a supreme recovery of moral health and martial vigour, we arise again and take our stand for freedom as in the olden time.
None could doubt that Churchill did sincerely believe that dishonour had been chosen, and that war would follow. The long-time parliamentary diarist, Henry "Chips" Channon, admitted that the speech "discomfited the Front Bench", but nonetheless, the balance of opinion was against Churchill. He and thirty other Conservatives abstained, and the most immediate effect of his speech was that he had to fight against deselection as the Conservative candidate for his Epping constituency.
Yet of course, Churchill was right. When war came eleven months later, Britain and France were in an immeasurably weaker position than they had been in 1938: there was no longer the Little Entente of Czechoslovakia, Romania, and Yugoslavia to distract Italy, support Poland from the south, or menace Bavaria and Silesia. The 1.5 million men of the Czech Army had lost their border fortifications when the Sudetenland was handed over to Hitler, and could not have effectively defended Czechoslovakia even if they had been ordered to when the Nazis chose to devour the rest the next March. Much has been made of the "time" Chamberlain supposedly bought at Munich to re-arm, but in doing so he delivered to Germany the entire Czech armaments industry, including 750 aircraft, 600 tanks, and 2,000 guns, many of which would see service in Poland and France in the next two years.
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